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Integración y Vulneralidad Externa en Colombia

Author

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  • Cristina Fernández
  • Andrés González

Abstract

El presente artículo busca establecer las primeras bases para analizar la viabilidad de una coordinación de políticas macroeconómicas entre Colombia y otros países de la región. En particular, el trabajo busca determinar cuáles países tienen un ciclo económico similar al de nuestro país y establecer las causas de estas similitudes. El esclarecimiento de estos dos interrogantes permitirá anticipar algunos choques externos y suavizar su efecto sobre la economía mediante un conjunto de políticas, que puede evolucionar hasta el punto de constituir un programa de políticas macroeconómicas coordinadas. En efecto, a pesar de que nuestras economías no se encuentren aún preparadas para enfrentar un proceso de coordinación de políticas, la rápida integración comercial y financiera en la región, puede hacer insostenible su estabilidad sin un programa de coordinación macroeconómica. El principal resultado de este trabajo está en el hallazgo de una gran similitud entre el ciclo colombiano, el brasileño y el costarricense. La alta correlación que existe entre los términos de intercambio de estos países y los moderados niveles de comercio entre las tres economías2, sugieren el hecho de que estas similitudes están relacionadas con las exportaciones cafeteras3. Sin embargo, es importante anotar que a partir de los setenta, el café no es un producto particularmente importante para Brasil y por lo tanto, se hace necesario encontrar otras causas que estén determinando la similitud entre el ciclo económico colombiano y el brasileño.
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Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Fernández & Andrés González, 2000. "Integración y Vulneralidad Externa en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 156, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:156
    DOI: 10.32468/be.156
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Carmen M. Reinhart. & Vicent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Fluctuaciones del producto y choques monetarios: evidencia colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 10(20), pages 53-85, December.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart. & Vicent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Fluctuaciones del producto y choques monetarios: evidencia colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 10(20), pages 53-85, December.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," Borradores de Economia 3549, Banco de la Republica.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 2274, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    3. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2004. "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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