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Integración y Vulneralidad Externa en Colombia

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  • Cristina Fernández

    ()

  • Andrés González

Abstract

El presente artículo busca establecer las primeras bases para analizar la viabilidad de una coordinación de políticas macroeconómicas entre Colombia y otros países de la región. En particular, el trabajo busca determinar cuáles países tienen un ciclo económico similar al de nuestro país y establecer las causas de estas similitudes. El esclarecimiento de estos dos interrogantes permitirá anticipar algunos choques externos y suavizar su efecto sobre la economía mediante un conjunto de políticas, que puede evolucionar hasta el punto de constituir un programa de políticas macroeconómicas coordinadas. En efecto, a pesar de que nuestras economías no se encuentren aún preparadas para enfrentar un proceso de coordinación de políticas, la rápida integración comercial y financiera en la región, puede hacer insostenible su estabilidad sin un programa de coordinación macroeconómica. El principal resultado de este trabajo está en el hallazgo de una gran similitud entre el ciclo colombiano, el brasileño y el costarricense. La alta correlación que existe entre los términos de intercambio de estos países y los moderados niveles de comercio entre las tres economías2, sugieren el hecho de que estas similitudes están relacionadas con las exportaciones cafeteras3. Sin embargo, es importante anotar que a partir de los setenta, el café no es un producto particularmente importante para Brasil y por lo tanto, se hace necesario encontrar otras causas que estén determinando la similitud entre el ciclo económico colombiano y el brasileño.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 156.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:156

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  1. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  2. Ulrich Woitek, 1998. "A Note on the Baxter-King Filter," Working Papers 9813, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "Monetary regime choices for a semi-open country," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1991. "Fluctuaciones del producto y choques monetarios: evidencia colombiana
    [Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia]
    ," MPRA Paper 13654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002164, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  3. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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