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Integracion Y Vulnerabilidad Externa En Colombia

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  • Cristina Fernández

    ()

  • Andrés González

    ()

Abstract

El presente artículo busca establecer las primeras bases para analizar la viabilidad de una coordinación de políticas macroeconómicas entre Colombia y otros países de la región. En particular, el trabajo busca determinar cuáles países tienen un ciclo económico similar al de nuestro país y establecer las causas de estas similitudes. El esclarecimiento de estos dos interrogantes permitirá anticipar algunos choques externos y suavizar su efecto sobre la economía mediante un conjunto de políticas, que puede evolucionar hasta el punto de constituir un programa de políticas macroeconómicas coordinadas. En efecto, a pesar de que nuestras economías no se encuentren aún preparadas para enfrentar un proceso de coordinación de políticas, la rápida integración comercial y financiera en la región, puede hacer insostenible su estabilidad sin un programa de coordinación macroeconómica. El principal resultado de este trabajo está en el hallazgo de una gran similitud entre el ciclo colombiano, el brasileño y el costarricense. La alta correlación que existe entre los términos de intercambio de estos países y los moderados niveles de comercio entre las tres economías2, sugieren el hecho de que estas similitudes están relacionadas con las exportaciones cafeteras3. Sin embargo, es importante anotar que a partir de los setenta, el café no es un producto particularmente importante para Brasil y por lo tanto, se hace necesario encontrar otras causas que estén determinando la similitud entre el ciclo económico colombiano y el brasileño.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002901.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 30 Aug 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002901

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  1. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002164, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1994. "Monetary Regime Choices for a Semi-Open Country," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-036, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Carmen M Reinhart & Vincent R Reinhart, 1991. "Fluctuaciones Del Producto Y Choque Monetarios: Evidencia Colombiana," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  8. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  9. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. Ulrich Woitek, 1998. "A Note on the Baxter-King Filter," Working Papers 9813, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
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Cited by:
  1. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  2. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A View Throught Non- Linear Models," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002691, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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