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Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey

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Olivier J. Blanchard

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Abstract

Why movements in nominal money appear to have strong and lasting effects on real activity is one of the most difficult questions in macroeconomics. The paper surveys the state of knowledge on the issue. with a focus on recent developments. The paper starts by reviewing the evolution of thought from Keynes' emphasis on wages to the "wage price mechanism" of the early 1970's. as well as the facts on the relation between money. prices and output. Prom this review. it concludes that the intellectual crisis of the 1970's came not from the inability of the prevailing theory to explain the facts -which it had mostly right-. but from the weakness of its theoretical foundations. The paper then examines the reconstruction effort. Two alternative strategies have been followed. The first has been to break with previous research and explore how far models based on perfect competition and imperfect information could go in explaining the effects of money on activity. This strategy has largely fizzled and its proponents moved away from the money-output issue. The second has been instead to explore whether the many insights of previous research could be made more rigorous and has focused on the potential role of imperfect competition in labor and goods markets ; substantial progress has been made. but no grand synthesis has emerged. nor is likely to in the foreseeable future.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2285.

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Date of creation: Feb 1991
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Publication status: published as Handbook of Monetary Economics, Vol. II, edited by Benjamin M. Friedman and F.H. Hahn, pp. 779-835. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., 199 0.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2285

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  1. Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "The Challenge of High Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 2489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. M. Burda, . "European Labor Markets and the Euro: How Much Flexibility Do We Really Need?," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-41, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    Other versions:
  3. Arai, Mahmood & Kinnwall, Mats & Skogman Thoursie, Peter, 2002. "Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2002:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  5. Fehr, Ernst & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2000. "Does Money Illusion Matter? An Experimental Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 174, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Joerg Breitung & Robert Chirinko & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) And Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence From German Firms," Emory Economics 0307, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Dinero, Interés, Inflación y Fluctuaciones económicas en Colombia desde 1958," Borradores de Economia 044, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Luca Colombo & Gerd Weinrich, 2006. "The Role of Expectations in a Macroeconomic Model with Inventories," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 65, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1988. "The Role of Demand Management in the Maintenance of Full Employment," NBER Working Papers 2520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert J. Gordon, 1991. "The Phillips Curve Now and Then," NBER Working Papers 3393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Julián Arévalo & Angélica Castro & Édgar Villa, 2002. "Un análisis del ciclo económico en competencia imperfecta," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 4(7), pages 11-39, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Gerd Weinrich & Luca Colombo, 2005. "Money, Inventories and Underemployment in Deflationary Recessions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 156, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 3361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Russell Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 1993. "Macroeconomic Implications of Production Bunching," NBER Working Papers 2976, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jan Gottschalk, 2002. "Keynesian and Monetarist Views on the German Unemployment Problem — Theory and Evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  16. Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Otro Costo de una Inflación Perfectamente Prevista," Borradores de Economia 077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  17. James B. Bullard, 1991. "The FOMC in 1990: onset of recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 31-53. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2001. "Does Money Illusion Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1239-1262, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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