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Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects

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Author Info
Thomas Mikosch (Dept. Actuarial Mathematics, University of Copenhagen)
Catalin Starica (Dept. Mathematical Statistics & Economics, Gothenburg University & CTH)

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Abstract

In this paper we give the theoretical basis of a possible explanation for two stylized facts observed in long log-return series: the long range dependence (LRD) in volatility and the integrated GARCH (IGARCH). Both these effects can be theoretically explained if one assumes that the data is non-stationary (changing unconditional variance).

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/em/papers/0412/0412005.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0412005.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 08 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0412005

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 19
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Sample ACF; Garch process; long range dependence; IGARCH; non- stationarities; time-varying unconditional variance;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl & Yasemin Ulu, 2006. "Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Simultaneous Equations Approach Using Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Further evidence on the statistical properties of Real GNP," Economics Working Papers 955, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Luc, BAUWENS & G., STORTI, 2007. "A Component GARCH Model with Time Varying Weights," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007012, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2008. "Adaptive pointwise estimation in time-inhomogeneous time-series models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Malmsten, Hans & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2004. "Stylized Facts of Financial Time Series and Three Popular Models of Volatility," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 563, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marcel Scharth & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2006. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in the volatility of Dow Jones stocks," Textos para discussão 532, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  7. Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," MPRA Paper 815, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Mohamed Boutahar & Jamel Jouini, 2007. "A Methodology For Detecting Breaks In The Mean And Covariance Structure Of Time Series," Working Papers halshs-00354249_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  9. Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2006. "Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates," MPRA Paper 5199, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Zhongfang He & John M Maheu, 2008. "Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models," Working Papers tecipa-336, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Wolfgang Härdle & Julius Mungo, 2007. "Long Memory Persistence in the Factor of Implied Volatility Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-027, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks," Economics Working Papers 956, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ying Chen & Wolfgang Härdle & Uta Pigorsch, 2009. "Localized Realized Volatility Modelling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Luc, BAUWENS & Arie, PREMINGER & Jeroen, ROMBOUTS, 2006. "Regime switching GARCH models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2006. "An introduction to univariate GARCH models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 646, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Mohammed Bouaddi & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2007. "Mixed Exponential Power Asymmetric Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Cahiers de recherche 0749, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
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