IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/9915.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Hysteresis in Unemployment Occur in OECD Countries? Evidence from Parametric and Non-Parametric Panel Unit Roots Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
  • Chia, Ricky Chee-Jiun
  • Puah, Chin-Hong

Abstract

This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fourteen OECD countries by examining the stationarity of unemployment rates using several panel unit root tests. Empirical results show that the hysteresis hypothesis cannot be rejected for majority of the OECD when the tests are conducted on the basis of individual countries. However, rejection is obtained when cross-country interdependence in unemployment rates is incorporated in the estimation. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the cross-country labor markets interdependence when testing the hysteresis hypothesis as the labor market institutions and the stabilization policy of the labor markets in these OECD countries can play an important role in maintaining the unemployment to sustainable levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Chia, Ricky Chee-Jiun & Puah, Chin-Hong, 2009. "Does Hysteresis in Unemployment Occur in OECD Countries? Evidence from Parametric and Non-Parametric Panel Unit Roots Tests," MPRA Paper 9915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9915
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9915/1/MPRA_paper_9915.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    3. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Haw, Chan Tze & Fountas, Stilianos, 2005. "A panel study on real interest rate parity in East Asian countries: Pre- and post-liberalization era," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 69-85, August.
    5. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    6. Cross,Rod Preface by-Name:Blanchard,Olivier (ed.), 1995. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521483308.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    10. Brunello, Giorgio, 1990. "Hysteresis and "The Japanese Unemployment Problem": A Preliminary Investigation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 483-500, July.
    11. Magnus Gustavsson & Par Osterholm, 2006. "Hysteresis and non-linearities in unemployment rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 545-548.
    12. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
    13. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
    14. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    15. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343.
    16. Neudorfer, Peter & Pichelmann, K & Wagner, Michael, 1990. "Hysteresis, Nairu and Long Term Unemployment in Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 217-229.
    17. By Knut Røed, 2002. "Unemployment hysteresis and the natural rate of vacancies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 687-704.
    18. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    19. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
    20. Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2000. "OECD unemployment: structural breaks and stationarity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 399-403.
    21. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    22. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-243, April.
    23. Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2000. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the US and the EU: a Panel Data Approach," Studies in Economics 0006, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    24. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    25. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    26. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Boţa-Avram & Adrian Groşanu & Paula-Ramona Răchişan & Sorin Romulus Berinde, 2021. "Granger Causal Nexus between Good Public Governance and Unemployment: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data Investigation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, February.
    2. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:526:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:5:id:526:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gordana Marjanovic & Ljiljana Maksimovic & Nenad Stanisic, 2015. "Hysteresis and the NAIRU: The Case of Countries in Transition," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 503-515.
    5. Asiya Maskaeva & Mgeni Msafiri, 2021. "Youth unemployment hysteresis in South Africa: Macro-micro analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-20, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:435-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    8. Krzysztof Bartosik & Jerzy Mycielski, 2016. "Dynamika płac a długotrwałe bezrobocie w polskiej gospodarce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 435-462.
    9. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Seyi Saint Akadiri & Osundina Olawumi & Festus Victor Bekun, 2017. "Does Labor Market Hysteresis Hold in Low Income Countries?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 19-23.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 312-325, March.
    3. Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Kasim Mansur, 2019. "External Shocks, Structural Breaks And Unemployment Hysteresis In Selected Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 575-600, June.
    4. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Heshmati, Almas & Azam, Muhammad, 2020. "Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Omay, Tolga & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2021. "Is There Really Hysteresis in OECD Countries’ Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 107691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2021.
    6. Tolga Omay & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2021. "Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? New evidence using a Fourier panel unit root test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 875-901, November.
    7. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Testing Unemployment Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 694-700.
    8. Vuyokazi Pikoko & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Is There Hysteresis in South African Unemployment? Evidence from the Post-Recessionary Period," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 15(3), pages 365-387, JUNE.
    9. Jean françois Hoarau & Claude Lopez & Michel Paul, 2010. "Short Note on the Unemployment Rate of the “French overseas regions”," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2321-2329.
    10. Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2008. "On the persistence of Spanish unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 77-99, August.
    11. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2022. "Doubts on natural rate of unemployment: Evidence and policy implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 230-239.
    12. Bakas, Dimitrios & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2014. "Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 551-562.
    13. Evangelia Papapetrou & Dimitrios Bakas, 2012. "Unemployment in Greece: evidence from Greek regions," Working Papers 146, Bank of Greece.
    14. Ling, Tai-Hu & Venus, Khim-Sen Liew & Syed Khalid Wafa, Syed Azizi Wafa, 2008. "Does Fisher hypothesis hold for the East Asian Economies? an application of panel unit root tests," MPRA Paper 21601, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2010.
    15. Miguel A. León‐Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, August.
    16. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    17. Ebuh U. Godday & Nuruddeen Usman & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Testing for unemployment persistence in Nigeria," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2605-2630, November.
    18. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    19. García-Cintado, Alejandro & Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2015. "Can the hysteresis hypothesis in Spanish regional unemployment be beaten? New evidence from unit root tests with breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 244-252.
    20. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2004. "Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks†," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces 2004/40, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Hysteresis Hypothesis; Panel Unit Root Test; Parametric Test; Non-Parametric Test; OECD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9915. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.