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Dynamika płac a długotrwałe bezrobocie w polskiej gospodarce

Author

Listed:
  • Krzysztof Bartosik

    (Instytut Nauk Ekonomicznych PAN)

  • Jerzy Mycielski

    (Uniwersytet Warszawski, Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych)

Abstract

Celem niniejszej pracy jest zbadanie, czy w polskiej gospodarce występuje związek między dynamiką płac nominalnych a wielkością długotrwałego bezrobocia. Aby uzyskać odpowiedź, oszacowano za pomocą MNK płacową krzywą Phillipsa ze zdekomponowaną stopą bezrobocia (krótkoi długotrwałego). Analiza objęła lata 1996−2014. Uzyskane parametry wykorzystano do oszacowania oddziaływania poszczególnych determinant na stopę wzrostu płac. Przeprowadzono także analizę wpływu problemu niestacjonarności i endogeniczności zmiennych na przeprowadzone wnioskowanie statystyczne. Stwierdzono istnienie odwrotnej zależności między stopą bezrobocia krótkotrwałego a dynamiką płac oraz brak statystycznie istotnej zależności między stopą bezrobocia długotrwałego a dynamiką płac. Świadczy to, że struktura bezrobocia wpływa na dynamikę płac nominalnych w taki sposób, że spadek bezrobocia krótkotrwałego przy jednoczesnym wzroście bezrobocia długotrwałego sprzyja wzrostowi płac. Ponadto badanie wskazuje, że stopa bezrobocia jest tylko jedną z determinant; ważne są także zmiany inflacji i wydajności pracy. Z analizy wynika również, że do spowolnienia dynamiki polskich wynagrodzeń nominalnych podczas światowego kryzysu finansowego przyczyniło się kilka czynników – wzrost stopy bezrobocia krótkotrwałego, względnie niska inflacja oraz obniżenie tempa wzrostu wydajności pracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Bartosik & Jerzy Mycielski, 2016. "Dynamika płac a długotrwałe bezrobocie w polskiej gospodarce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 435-462.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:5:p:435-462
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrzej Pisulewski, 2019. "The Dynamics of Unemployment in Poland from 1992 to 2017," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 135-149.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bezrobocie długotrwałe; wynagrodzenia; krzywa Phillipsa; „swoi– obcy”; erozja kapitału ludzkiego;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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