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The Dynamics of Unemployment in Poland from 1992 to 2017

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  • Andrzej Pisulewski

Abstract

Two alternative approaches can be found in the literature on the dynamics of unemployment. The first approach is based on the theory of a natural rate of unemployment. Under this theory, the economy can depart from the natural rate of unemployment in the short term due to nominal shocks, but in the long term the economy is expected to achieve an equilibrium indicated by the natural rate of unemployment. The second approach to the dynamics of unemployment is the so-called hysteresis of unemployment theory. According to this theory, all shocks to unemployment will have a permanent effect on the natural rate of unemployment. In a statistical sense, these two theories boil down to testing the unit root. If the unemployment rate is a non-stationary series with a unit root, then the hysteresis-in-unemployment hypothesis has to be accepted. On the other hand, if the unemployment rate is a stationary series then the hysteresis hypothesis is rejected in favour of the natural rate theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrzej Pisulewski, 2019. "The Dynamics of Unemployment in Poland from 1992 to 2017," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 135-149.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2019:i:1:p:135-149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iman Cheratian & Saleh Goltabar & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, 2023. "The unemployment hysteresis by territory, gender, and age groups in Iran," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; hysteresis; threshold autoregression model; unit root tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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