Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator
AbstractThe debate on the order of integration of interest rates has long focused on the I(1) versus I(0) distinction. In this paper, we use instead the wavelet OLS estimator of Jensen (1999) to estimate the fractional integration parameters of several interest rates for the United States and Canada from 1948 to 1999. We find that most rates are mean-reverting in the very long run, with the fractional order of integration increasing with the term to maturity. The speeds of mean-reversion are lower in Canada, due likely to a positive country-specific risk premium. We also demonstrate that yield spreads contain noticeable persistence, indicating that these are also not strict I(0) processes. The consequences of these findings are that shocks to most interest rates and their spreads are very long-lasting, yet not necessarily infinite.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 00-5.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Econometric and statistical methods; Interest rates;
Other versions of this item:
- Tkacz Greg, 2001. "Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, April.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2000-07-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2000-07-03 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FMK-2000-07-03 (Financial Markets)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Høg, Espen P. & Frederiksen, Per H., 2006. "The Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process: Term Structure Theory and Application," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2006-01, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
- Alagidede, Paul & Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Inflationary shocks and common economic trends: Implications for West African monetary union membership," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 460-475.
- Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla, 2007.
"Modeling Long-Term Memory Effect in Stock Prices: A Comparative Analysis with GPH Test and Daubechies Wavelets,"
2481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Alper Ozun & Atilla Cifter, 2008. "Modeling long-term memory effect in stock prices: A comparative analysis with GPH test and Daubechies wavelets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 38-48, March.
- Crowley, Patrick, 2005.
"An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists,"
Research Discussion Papers
1/2005, Bank of Finland.
- Elder, John & Jin, Hyun Joung & Koo, Won W., 2004.
"A Reexamination Of Fractional Integrating Dynamics In Foreign Currency Markets,"
2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO
20004, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Jin, Hyun J. & Elder, John & Koo, Won W., 2006. "A reexamination of fractional integrating dynamics in foreign currency markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 120-135.
- Simeon Coleman and Kavita Sirichand, 2011.
"Fractional integration and the volatility of UK interest rates,"
2011/02, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
- Coleman, Simeon & Sirichand, Kavita, 2012. "Fractional integration and the volatility of UK interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 381-384.
- Simeon Coleman & Kavita Sirichand, 2011. "Fractional integration and the volatility of UK interest rates," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/29, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised May 2011.
- Vuorenmaa , Tommi, 2005. "A wavelet analysis of scaling laws and long-memory in stock market volatility," Research Discussion Papers 27/2005, Bank of Finland.
- Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait & Cifter, Elif, 2009. "Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1382-1388, November.
- Esben Hoeg & Per Frederiksen, 2006. "The Fractional OU Process: Term Structure Theory and Application," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 194, Society for Computational Economics.
- Jan Beran & Dirk Ocker, 2002. "Pricing of cap-interest rates based on renewal processes," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-10, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- In, Francis & Kim, Sangbae, 2006. "Multiscale hedge ratio between the Australian stock and futures markets: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 411-423, October.
- Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2012. "The Meiselman forward interest rate revision regression as an Affine Term Structure Model," Discussion Papers 12/27, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Luis Gil-Alana, 2003. "Strong dependence in the real interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 119-124.
- Coleman, Simeon, 2012. "Where Does the Axe Fall? Inflation Dynamics and Poverty Rates: Regional and Sectoral Evidence for Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2454-2467.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.