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Bayesian and Classical Approaches to Instrumental Variable Regression

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  • Frank Kleibergen
  • Eric Zivot

Abstract

We estabilsh the relationships between certain Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variables regression. We determine the form of priors that lead to posteriors for structural paameters that have similar properties as classical 2SLS and LIML and in doing so provide some new insight to the small sample behavior of Bayesian and classical procedures in the limited information simultaneous equations model. Our approach is motivated by the relationship between Bayesian and classical procedures in linear regression models: i.e., Bayesian analysis with a diffuse prior leads to posteriors that are identical in form to the finite sample density of classical least squares estimators. We use the fact that the instrumental variables regression model can be obtained from a reduced rank restriction on a multivariate linear model to determine the priors that give rise to posteriors that have properties similar to classical 2SLS and LIML. As a by-product of this approach we provide a novel way to dtermine the exact finite sample density of the LIML estimator and theprior that corresponds with classical LIML. We show that the traditional Dreze (1976) and a new Bayesian Two Stage approach are similar to 2SLS whereas the approach based on the Jeffreys' prior corresponds to LIML.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics at the University of Washington in its series Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington with number 0063.

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Date of creation: Aug 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fth:washer:0063

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 845R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1988.
  2. Fuller, Wayne A, 1977. "Some Properties of a Modification of the Limited Information Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(4), pages 939-53, May.
  3. Sawa, Takamitsu, 1973. "The mean square error of a combined estimator and numerical comparison with the TSLS estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 115-132, June.
  4. Anderson, T. W. & Kunitomo, Naoto & Morimune, Kimio, 1986. "Comparing Single-Equation Estimators in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 1-32, April.
  5. Diebold & Lamb, . "Why Are Estimates of Agricultural Supply Response So Variable?," Home Pages _055, University of Pennsylvania.
  6. ZELLNER, A. & BAUWENS, Luc & VAN DIJK, H., 1987. "Bayesian specification analysis and estimation of simultaneous equation models using Monte Carlo methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1987056, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Richard Startz & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Improved Inference for the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrics 9905001, EconWPA.
  8. Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2001. "Further Results on Bayesian Method of Moments Analysis of the Multiple Regression Model," Staff General Research Papers 12021, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Anderson, T W, 1977. "Asymptotic Expansions of the Distributions of Estimates in Simultaneous Equations for Alternative Parameter Sequences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 509-18, March.
  10. Zivot, E & Startz, R & Nelson, C-R, 1997. "Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 97-17, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  11. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "Jeffreys prior analysis of the simultaneous equations model in the case with n+1 endogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 251-283, December.
  12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Zellner, Arnold, 1978. "Estimation of functions of population means and regression coefficients including structural coefficients : A minimum expected loss (MELO) approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 127-158, October.
  14. Maddala, G S, 1976. "Weak Priors and Sharp Posteriors in Simultaneous Equation Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 345-51, March.
  15. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1998. "Bayesian Simultaneous Equations Analysis Using Reduced Rank Structures," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(06), pages 701-743, December.
  16. Forchini, G. & Hillier, G.H., 1999. "Conditional inference for possibly unidentified structural equations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9906, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  17. Anderson, T W & Sawa, Takamitsu, 1979. "Evaluation of the Distribution Function of the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimate," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 163-82, January.
  18. Kleibergen, F.R. & Paap, R., 1998. "Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9821, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  19. Kajal Lahiri & Chuanming Gao, 2001. "A Comparison of Some Recent Bayesian and Classical Procedures for Simultaneous Equation Models with Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 01-15, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  20. Jiahui Wang & Eric Zivot, 1998. "Inference on Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1389-1404, November.
  21. Park, Soo-Bin, 1982. "Some sampling properties of minimum expected loss (MELO) estimators of structural coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 295-311, April.
  22. Zellner, Arnold, 1998. "The finite sample properties of simultaneous equations' estimates and estimators Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 185-212.
  23. Chao, J. C. & Phillips, P. C. B., 1998. "Posterior distributions in limited information analysis of the simultaneous equations model using the Jeffreys prior," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 49-86, August.
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