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Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods

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Author Info
Lynda Khalaf
Maral Kichian

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Abstract

The authors use simple new finite-sample methods to test the empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. Unlike tests based on the generalized method of moments, the generalized Anderson-Rubin (1949) tests are immune to the presence of weak instruments and allow, by construction, the identification status of a model to be assessed. The authors illustrate their results using Gali and Gertler's (1999) NKPC specifications and data, as well as a survey-based inflation-expectation series from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The test the authors use rejects Gali and Gertler's estimates (conditional on the latters' choice of instruments). Nevertheless, and in contrast with results obtained by Ma (2002), the authors do obtain relatively informative confidence sets. This provides support for NKPC equations and illustrates the usefulness of using exact procedures in estimations based on instrumental variables. The authors' results also reveal that the least well-identified parameter is w; namely, the proportion of firms that do not adjust their prices in period t.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2004/wp04-11.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-11.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-11

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Related research
Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edith Gagnon & Hashmat Khan, 2001. "New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures forCanada, the United States, and the Euro Area," Working Papers 01-25, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
    Other versions:
  3. Kleibergen, Frank & Zivot, Eric, 2003. "Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variable regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 29-72, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
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  5. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  6. Frank Kleibergen, 2002. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1781-1803, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maddala, G S, 1974. "Some Small Sample Evidence on Tests of Significance in Simultaneous Equations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(5), pages 841-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A General Theory of Hypothesis Testing in the Simultaneous Equations Model," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1992, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  10. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jasiak, Joann, 2001. "Finite Sample Limited Information Inference Methods for Structural Equations and Models with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(3), pages 815-43, August.
  11. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jiahui Wang & Eric Zivot, 1998. "Inference on Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1389-1404, November.
  13. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz & Eric Zivot, 1996. "Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments," Econometrics 9612002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2002. "Simulation based finite and large sample tests in multivariate regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 303-322, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nejla Adanur Aklan & Mehmet Nargelecekenler, 2008. "Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 156-166, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification-Robust Econometric Analysis," Working Papers 05-27, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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