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Simulation Based Finite- and Large-Sample Inference Methods in Simultaneous Equations

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Author Info
Jean-Marie Dufour () (Université de Montréal)
Lynda Khalaf () (Université Laval)

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Abstract

In the context of multivariate regression (MLR) and simultaneous equations (SE), it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. In this paper, we propose finite and large sample likelihood based test procedures for possibly nonlinear hypotheses on the coefficients of SE systems. We discuss a number of bounds tests and Monte Carlo simulations based tests. The latter involves maximizing a randomized p -value function over the relevant nuisance parameter space. This is done numerically by using a simulated annealing algorithm. Illustrative Monte Carlo experiments show that (i) bootstrapping standard instrumental variable (IV) based criteria fails to achieve size control, especially (but not exclusively) under near non-identification conditions, and (ii) the tests based on IV estimates do not appear to be boundedly pivotal and so no size-correction may be feasible. By contrast, likelihood ration based tests work well in the experiments performed.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 with number 824.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:824

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Postal: CEF99, Boston College, Department of Economics, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
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  1. Charles Nelson & Richard Startz & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Improved Inference for the Instrumental Variables Estimator," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1600, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf, 2000. "Simulation Based Finite and Large Sample Tests in Multivariate Regressions," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-15, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jean-Marie Dufour & Pascale Valery, 2000. "Monte Carlo Test Applied to Models Estimated by Indirect Inference," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1667, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.


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