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Structural Threshold Regression

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  • Andros Kourtellos

    () (Department of Economics, University of Cyprus)

  • Thanasis Stengos

    () (Department of Economics, University of Guelph)

  • Chih Ming Tan

    () (Department of Economics, Clark University)

Abstract

This paper introduces the structural threshold regression model that allows for an endogeneous threshold variable as well as for endogenous regressors. This model provides a parsimonious way of modeling nonlinearities and has many potential applications in economics and finance. Our framework can be viewed as a generalization of the simple threshold regression framework of Hansen (2000) and Caner and Hansen (2004) to allow for the endogeneity of the threshold variable and regime specific heteroskedasticity. Our estimation of the threshold parameter is based on a concentrated least squares method that involves an inverse Mills ratio bias correction term in each regime. We derive its asymptotic distribution and propose a method to construct bootstrap confidence intervals. We also provide inference for the slope parameters based on GMM. Finally, we investigate the performance of the asymptotic approximations and the bootstrap using a Monte Carlo simulation that indicates the applicability of the method in finite samples.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 49_11.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:49_11

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  1. Seo, Myung Hwan & Linton, Oliver, 2007. "A smoothed least squares estimator for threshold regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 704-735, December.
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
  3. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 813-843, October.
  4. Papageorgiou, Chris, 2006. "Trade as a threshold variable for multiple regimes: Reply," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 460-461, June.
  5. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  6. Li, Qi & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2002. "Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Models For Dependent Data With Generated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 625-645, June.
  7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Wolf, Michael, 2005. "Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 201-224, August.
  8. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development," Working Papers 15, Center for Global Development.
  9. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andros Kourtellos & Thanasis Stengos & Chih Ming Tan, 2009. "Do Institutions Rule? The Role of Heterogeneity in the Institutions vs. Geography Debate," Working Papers 0910, University of Guelph, Department of Economics.
  2. Ugo Panizza & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 78, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  3. Borek Vasicek, 2010. "Is Monetary Policy in New Members States Asymmetric?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1005, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Andros Kourtellos & Thanasis Stengos & Chih Ming Tan, 2012. "The Effect of Public Debt on Growth in Multiple Regimes," Working Paper Series 60_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  5. David Coyne & Chih Ming Tan, 2012. "Do Political Institutions Yield Multiple Growth Regimes?," Working Paper Series 36_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  6. Zisimos Koustas & Jean-François Lamarche, 2012. "Instrumental variable estimation of a nonlinear Taylor rule," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-20, February.

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