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The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes

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  • Kourtellos, Andros
  • Stengos, Thanasis
  • Tan, Chih Ming

Abstract

We employ a structural threshold regression methodology to investigate the heterogeneous effects of debt on growth using public debt as a threshold variable as well as several other plausible variables. Our methodology allows us to address parameter heterogeneity that characterizes cross-country growth data and at the same time account for endogeneity. We find strong evidence for threshold effects based on democracy, which implies that higher public debt results in lower growth for countries in the Low-Democracy regime. Our results are consistent with the presence of parameter heterogeneity in the cross-country growth process due to fundamental determinants of economic growth proposed by the new growth theories.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2013)
Issue (Month): PA ()
Pages: 35-43

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:38:y:2013:i:pa:p:35-43

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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Keywords: Parameter heterogeneity; Public debt; Debt threshold; Threshold regression;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Markus Eberhardt, 2013. "Nonlinearities in the Relationship between Debt and Growth: Evidence from Co-Summability Testing," Discussion Papers 2013/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  2. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Ming Tan, 2013. "Robust Multiple Regimes in Growth Volatility," Working Paper Series 52_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  4. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2012. "Does euro area membership affect the relation between GDP growth and public debt?," Discussion Papers 327, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  5. Megersa, kelbesa, 2014. "The laffer curve and the debt-growth link in low-income Sub-Saharan African economies," MPRA Paper 54362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2014. "What determines external debt tipping points?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 215-225.

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