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The structural determinants of external vulnerability

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Author Info
Loayza, Norman V.
Raddatz, Claudio

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Abstract

The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while improvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure-that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry is unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4089.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4089

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Keywords: Achieving Shared Growth; Free Trade; Economic Theory&Research; Inequality; Macroeconomic Management;

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  2. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman, 2005. "Openness can be good for growth : the role of policy complementarities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3763, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Kevin N. Cowan & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Alejandro Micco, 2004. "Effective Labor Regulation and Microeconomic Flexibility," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1480, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. repec:rus:hseeco:72137 is not listed on IDEAS
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  9. Collier, Paul & Dehn, Jan, 2001. "Aid, shocks, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2688, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Raddatz, Claudio, 2009. "The wrath of God : macroeconomic costs of natural disasters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5039, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. César Calderón & Norman V. Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2008. "Does Openness Imply Greater Vulnerability?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 485, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Liu, Xuan, 2007. "Trade Openness and the Cost of Sudden Stops: The Role of Financial Frictions," MPRA Paper 18260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2009. "Structural policies for shock-prone developing countries," MPRA Paper 17311, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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