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Terms of trade volatility, government spending cyclicality, and economic growth

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  • Markus Brueckner
  • Francisco Carneiro

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on real GDP per capita growth. Based on 5-year non-overlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980-2010, the paper finds that terms of trade volatility has significant adverse effects on economic growth in countries with procyclical government spending; in countries where government spending is countercyclical terms of trade volatility has no significant effect on growth. Conditional on the mediating role of government spending cyclicality, the GDP share of domestic credit to the private sector has no significant effect on the relationship between growth and terms of trade volatility.
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  • Markus Brueckner & Francisco Carneiro, 2017. "Terms of trade volatility, government spending cyclicality, and economic growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 975-989, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:5:p:975-989
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roie.12291
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    2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2017. "How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Four Proposals," Working Paper Series rwp17-033, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Simon Berset & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2023. "The fiscal response to revenue shocks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 814-848, June.
    4. Avom, Désiré & Kamguia, Brice & Ngameni, Joseph Pasky & Njangang, Henri, 2021. "How does terms of trade volatility affect macroeconomic volatility? The roles of financial development and institutions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 98-114.
    5. Moukpè Gniniguè & Essossinam Ali, 2022. "Migrant Remittances and Economic Growth in ECOWAS Countries: Does Digitalization Matter?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(5), pages 2517-2542, October.
    6. Vianna, Andre C. & Mollick, Andre V., 2018. "Government size and openness: Evidence from the commodity boom in Latin America," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 318-328.
    7. Luis Ayala-Cañón & María Jesús Delgado-Rodríguez & Sonia De Lucas-Santos, 2022. "Synchronization and cyclicality of social spending in economic crises," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1153-1187, November.

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