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Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth

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  • Philippe Aghion
  • David Hemous
  • Enisse Kharroubi

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether the cyclical pattern of fiscal policy can affect growth. We first build a simple endogenous growth model where entrepreneurs can invest either in short-run projects or in long-term growth enhancing projects. Long-term projects involve a liquidity risk which credit constrained firms try to overcome by borrowing on the basis of their short-run profits. By increasing firms' market size in recessions, a countercyclical fiscal policy will boost investment in productivity-enhancing long-term projects, and the more so in sectors that rely more on external financing or which display lower asset tangibility. Second, the paper tests this prediction using Rajan and Zingales (1998)'s diff-and-diff methodology on a panel data sample of manufacturing industries across 17 OECD countries over the period 1980-2005. The evidence confirms that the positive effects of a more countercyclical fiscal policy on value added growth, productivity growth, and R&D expenditure, are indeed larger in industries with heavier reliance on external finance or lower asset tangibility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15119.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Publication status: published as Cyclical fiscal policy, credit constraints, and industry growth ☆ Philippe Aghiona, David Hemousa, Enisse Kharroubib, Journal of Monetary Economics Available online 29 January 2014
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15119

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  1. Rafael Domenech & Javier Andres & Antonio Fatas, 2006. "The Stabilizing Role of Government Size," Working Papers 0603, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia, revised Jan 2007.
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  17. Philippe Aghion & Ioana Marinescu, 2008. "Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 251-278 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Adam S. Posen, 2010. "The Central Banker's Case for Doing More," Policy Briefs PB10-24, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. Martín Guzman & Pablo Gluzmann, 2012. "Tensions in the Implementation of Central Banks’ Policies in the Pursuit of Economic Development," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(65-66), pages 173-205, September.
  3. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2013. "The unemployment effects of fiscal policy: recent evidence from Greece," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, December.
  4. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Scholarly Articles 12490636, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Konstantinou, Panagiotis & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1629-1641, July.
  6. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo, 2013. "Knowledge-Based Capital, Innovation and Resource Allocation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1046, OECD Publishing.
  7. Alessandro Maravalle & Peter Claeys, 2010. "Fiscal policy and economic stability: does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?," IREA Working Papers 201015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised 2010.
  8. Luc Laeven & Fabián Valencia, 2013. "The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 147-177, 02.
  9. Piero Ferri & Steve Fazzari & Edward Greenberg & Anna Variato, 2011. "Aggregate Demand, Harrod’s Instability and Fluctuations," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 209-220, October.
  10. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Luc Laeven & Oana M. Nedelescu & Stijn Claessens & Fabian Valencia & Marc Dobler & Katharine Seal, 2011. "Crisis Management and Resolution," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/05, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.

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