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Testing for short-termism in the UK stock market

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  • David Miles

Abstract

This paper uses data on the stock market valuations of a large sample of UK companies to assess if that market displays short-termism. Tests are undertaken of whether discount rates, implicit in market valuations, applied to cash flows which accrue in the longer term are too high, both absolutely and relative to the rates applied to cash flows in the near term. Prima facie evidence that these longer-term discount rates are too high is found, a result consistent with the existence of short-termism.

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File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/1992/wp04.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 4.

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Date of creation: Oct 1992
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:4

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  1. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  2. Friend, Irwin & Landskroner, Yoram & Losq, Etienne, 1976. "The Demand for Risky Assets under Uncertain Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(5), pages 1287-97, December.
  3. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 58-62, May.
  4. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. " Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-84, September.
  5. Mervyn A. King & Don Fullerton, 1984. "The Taxation of Income from Capital: A Comparative Study of the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Germany," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number king84-1, May.
  6. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  7. Narayanan, M P, 1985. "Observability and the Payback Criterion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 309-23, July.
  8. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1990. "Equilibrium Short Horizons of Investors and Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 148-53, May.
  10. Stein, Jeremy C, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets, Inefficient Firms: A Model of Myopic Corporate Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 655-69, November.
  11. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
  12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Multiperiod Consumption-Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 163-74, March.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Gunther Tichy, 2002. "Informationsgesellschaft und flexiblere Arbeitsmärkte [Information society and flexible labour markets]," ITA manu:scripts 02_03, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
  2. E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Is there a Pensions Crisis in the U.K.?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 343-370, 07.
  3. Ian Davidson & Chris Mallin, 1998. "The influence of earnings per share on capital issues: some evidence from UK companies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 305-309.
  4. Dennis C. Mueller & Mark L. Sirower, 2003. "The causes of mergers: tests based on the gains to acquiring firms' shareholders and the size of premia," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 373-391.
  5. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2005. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Inflation," FAME Research Paper Series rp129, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  6. Lahiri, Poulomi & Chakraborty, Indrani, 2014. "Explaining dividend gap between R&D and non-R&D Indian companies in the post-reform period," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 268-283.
  7. Marianne Rubinstein, 2001. "Gouvernement d’entreprise et innovation," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 63(3), pages 211-229.
  8. Davies, Richard & Haldane, Andrew G. & Nielsen, Mette & Pezzini, Silvia, 2014. "Measuring the costs of short-termism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 16-25.
  9. Beetsma, Roel & Peters, Hans & Rebers, Eugene, 2000. "When to fire bad managers: the role of collusion between management and board of directors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 427-444, August.
  10. Segelod, Esbjorn, 2000. "A comparison of managers perceptions of short-termism in Sweden and the U.S," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 243-254, January.
  11. Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2003. "The Risk Premium for Equity: Implicatiosn for Resource Allocation, Welfare adn Policy," Working Papers 2003-14, Rice University, Department of Economics.
  12. Claudio Raddatz & Sergio Schmukler, 2010. "Pension Funds And Capital Market Development: How Much Bang For The Buck?," Working Papers 38, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Feb 2010.
  13. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2010. "A tőkefedezeti rendszer alapkérdéseinek új megközelítése
    [A new approach to the basic issues raised by the PAYE system]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 612-633.
  14. Stephen Nickell & John Van Reenen, 2001. "Technological Innovation and Performance in the United Kingdom," CEP Discussion Papers dp0488, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  15. Davis, E. Philip, 2002. "Institutional investors, corporate governance and the performance of the corporate sector," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 203-229, September.
  16. George Christodoulakis, 2012. "Conditions for rational investment short-termism," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 15-29, February.
  17. Grant, S. & Quiggin, J., 2001. "The Risk Premium for Equity: Explanations and Implications," Discussion Paper 2001-89, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  18. MacDonald, Ronald & Power, David, 1995. "Stock prices, dividends and retention: Long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-151, June.

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