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Testing for Short Termisn in the UK Stock Market

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  • Miles, David

Abstract

This paper uses data on the stock market valuations of a large sample of UK companies to assess if that market displays short-termism. Tests are undertaken of whether discount rates, implicit in market valuations, applied to cash flows which accrue in the longer term are too high, both absolutely and relative to the rates applied to cash flows in the near term. I find prima facie evidence that these longer-term discount rates are too high, a result consistent with the existence of short-termism. An alternative interpretation of the results is that risk premia applied to expected cash flows systematically increase with the maturity of those flows; whether this interpretation is consistent with asset pricing theories is questionable. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Miles, David, 1993. "Testing for Short Termisn in the UK Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1379-1396, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:103:y:1993:i:421:p:1379-96
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    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Rubinstein, 2001. "Gouvernement d’entreprise et innovation," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 63(3), pages 211-229.
    2. E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Is there a Pensions Crisis in the U.K.?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(3), pages 343-370, July.
    3. Colin Ellis, 2014. "Break-even maturity as a guide to financial distress," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 8(4), December.
    4. Stephen Nickell & John Van Reenen, 2001. "Technological Innovation and Performance in the United Kingdom," CEP Discussion Papers dp0488, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2003. "The Risk Premium for Equity: Implicatiosn for Resource Allocation, Welfare adn Policy," Working Papers 2003-14, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    6. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2005. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Inflation," FAME Research Paper Series rp129, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    7. Gunther Tichy, 2002. "Informationsgesellschaft und flexiblere Arbeitsmärkte [Information society and flexible labour markets]," ITA manu:scripts 02_03, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    8. MacDonald, Ronald & Power, David, 1995. "Stock prices, dividends and retention: Long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-151, June.
    9. Davis, E. Philip, 2002. "Institutional investors, corporate governance and the performance of the corporate sector," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 203-229, September.
    10. Robert Webb & Matthias Beck & Roddy McKinnon, 2003. "Problems and Limitations of Institutional Investor Participation in Corporate Governance," Corporate Governance: An International Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 65-73, January.
    11. Dennis C. Mueller & Mark L. Sirower, 2003. "The causes of mergers: tests based on the gains to acquiring firms' shareholders and the size of premia," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 373-391.
    12. Segelod, Esbjorn, 2000. "A comparison of managers perceptions of short-termism in Sweden and the U.S," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 243-254, January.
    13. George Christodoulakis, 2012. "Conditions for rational investment short-termism," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 15-29, February.
    14. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:280:d:66034 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lahiri, Poulomi & Chakraborty, Indrani, 2014. "Explaining dividend gap between R&D and non-R&D Indian companies in the post-reform period," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 268-283.
    16. Ian Davidson & Chris Mallin, 1998. "The influence of earnings per share on capital issues: some evidence from UK companies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 305-309.
    17. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia, 2002. "Stock market short-termism--an international perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 135-158, April.
    18. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2008. "Pension Funds And Capital Market Development:How Much Bang For The Buck?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4787, The World Bank.
    19. Marian Buil & Juan Pedro Aznar & Jorge Galiana & Alba Rocafort-Marco, 2016. "An Explanatory Study of MBA Students with Regards to Sustainability and Ethics Commitment," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-13, March.
    20. Grant, S. & Quiggin, J., 2001. "The Risk Premium for Equity : Explanations and Implications," Discussion Paper 2001-89, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    21. Beetsma, Roel & Peters, Hans & Rebers, Eugene, 2000. "When to fire bad managers: the role of collusion between management and board of directors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 427-444, August.
    22. Davies, Richard & Haldane, Andrew G. & Nielsen, Mette & Pezzini, Silvia, 2014. "Measuring the costs of short-termism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 16-25.
    23. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2010. "A tőkefedezeti rendszer alapkérdéseinek új megközelítése
      [A new approach to the basic issues raised by the PAYE system]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 612-633.
    24. Pedro Verga Matos & Miguel Coelho, 2016. "Short-Termism In Euronext Lisbon: An Empirical Analysis," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 21(1), pages 49-76.

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