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Panel Cointegration and the Neutrality of Money

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  • Westerlund, Joakim

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Costantini, Mauro

    ()
    (Department of Public Economics)

Abstract

Most econometric methods for testing the proposition of long-run monetary neutrality rely on the assumption that money and real output do not cointegrate, a result that is usually supported by the data. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that a violation of the noncointegration assumption is likely to result in a nonrejection of the neutrality proposition. To alleviate this problem, two new and more powerful panel cointegration tests are proposed that can be used under very general conditions. The tests are then applied to a panel covering 10 countries between 1870 and 1986. The results suggest money and real output are cointegrated, and that the neutrality proposition therefore must be rejected.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2006:18.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 09 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as Westerlund, Joakim and Mauro Costantini, 'Panel Cointegration and the Neutrality of Money' in Empirical Economics, 2009, pages 1-26.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2006_018

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
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Keywords: Monetary Neutrality; Panel Cointegration Testing;

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References

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  1. Weber, Axel A, 1994. "Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 1042, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing Long Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, . "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-Economic Data," Working Papers 170, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  4. Evans, Paul, 1996. "Growth and the Neutrality of Money," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 187-202.
  5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 519, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Serletis, A & Moustas, Z, 1997. "International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money," Papers 9704, Calgary - Department of Economics.
  7. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina-Ioana Tarcolea, 2006. "Combining Significance of Correlated Statistics with Application to Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 647-663, October.
  8. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2006. "A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-216, March.
  9. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.
  10. MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  11. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  12. Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
  13. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
  14. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  15. repec:fth:osakae:398 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Mendizabal, Hugo Rodriguez, 2006. "The Behavior of Money Velocity in High and Low Inflation Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 209-228, February.
  17. Crowder, William J, 1998. "The Long-Run Link between Money Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 229-43, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jin Lee, 2012. "Nonparametric Testing for Long-Run Neutrality with Applications to US Money and Output Data," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 183-202, August.
  2. Francesca Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1271-1300, June.
  3. Costantini, Mauro & Lupi, Claudio, 2011. "A Simple Panel-CADF Test for Unit Roots," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp11062, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  4. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2011. "A sieve bootstrap range test for poolability in dependent cointegrated panels," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2011/2, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
  5. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2012. "Savings and Investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2012/2, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.

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