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Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions

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Author Info
Patrick J. Coe (Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Canada)
James M. Nason (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, USA)

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Abstract

A prominent test of long-run monetary neutrality (LRMN) involves regressing long-horizon output growth on long-horizon money growth. We obtain limited support for LRMN with this test in long-annual Australian, Canadian, UK and US samples. Although empirical confidence intervals yield evidence in favour of LRMN, Monte Carlo experiments reveal the power of this test is near its size. Thus, this test is unlikely to detect important deviations from LRMN. These problems arise because the long-horizon regression test of LRMN relies on estimates of the covariance of long-horizon output growth and long-horizon money growth. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.749
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2004-v19.3/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 355-373
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:3:p:355-373

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Coe, Patrick J. & Nason, James M., 2003. "The long-horizon regression approach to monetary neutrality: how should the evidence be interpreted?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 351-356, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Olekalns, Nilss, 1996. "Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 393-398, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Serletis, Apostolos & Krause, David, 1996. "Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 323-327, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1989. "Power in Econometric Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1059-90, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  19. Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1997. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 756-59, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2005. "An Alternative Test of Purchasing Power Parity," International Finance 0502009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Long Run Effects of Money on Real Consumption and Investment in the U.S," Macroeconomics 0404007, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Westerlund, Joakim & Costantini, Mauro, 2006. "Panel Cointegration and the Neutrality of Money," Working Papers 2006:18, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship," Macroeconomics 0407013, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
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