Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions
AbstractA prominent test of long-run monetary neutrality (LRMN) involves regressing long-horizon output growth on long-horizon money growth. We obtain limited support for LRMN with this test in long-annual Australian, Canadian, UK and US samples. Although empirical confidence intervals yield evidence in favour of LRMN, Monte Carlo experiments reveal the power of this test is near its size. Thus, this test is unlikely to detect important deviations from LRMN. These problems arise because the long-horizon regression test of LRMN relies on estimates of the covariance of long-horizon output growth and long-horizon money growth. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 19 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Newey, W.K. & West, K.D., 1992.
"Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
9220, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
- Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John, 2001.
"Why Long Horizons? A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives,"
3196341, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
- John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," NBER Technical Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992.
"Testing Long Run Neutrality,"
NBER Working Papers
4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hodrick, Robert J, 1992.
"Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
- Tom Doan, . "OLSHODRICK: RATS procedure to compute Hodrick standard errors," Statistical Software Components RTS00147, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1986.
"Power in Econometric Applications,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
800, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Krause, David, 1996. "Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 323-327, March.
- Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
- Coe, Patrick J. & Nason, James M., 2003. "The long-horizon regression approach to monetary neutrality: how should the evidence be interpreted?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 351-356, March.
- Olekalns, N., 1995.
"Some further Evidence on the Long Run Neutrality of Money,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
465, The University of Melbourne.
- Olekalns, Nilss, 1996. "Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 393-398, March.
- Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-82, August.
- Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
- Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.
- Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1997. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 756-59, September.
- Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
- Lastrapes, William D. & Potts, Todd B., 2006. "Durable goods and the forward-looking theory of consumption: Estimates implied by the dynamic effects of money," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1430, August.
- Jonathan B. Hill, 2004.
"Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship,"
0413, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
- Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.
- Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship," Macroeconomics 0407013, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2005.
- Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18.
- Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
- Wallace, Frederick H. & Shelley, Gary L., 2006.
"An alternative test of purchasing power parity,"
Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 177-183, August.
- Becker, Sascha O. & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006.
"Intra- and international risk-sharing in the short run and the long run,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 777-806, April.
- Sascha O. Becker & Mathias Hoffmann, 2003. "Intra-and International Risk-Sharing in the Short Run and the Long Run," CESifo Working Paper Series 1111, CESifo Group Munich.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 2004. "Long-horizon regression tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1961-1985, August.
- Shelley, Gary & Wallace, Frederick, 2006.
"Long run effects of money on real consumption and investment in the U.S,"
4136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Long Run Effects of Money on Real Consumption and Investment in the U.S," Macroeconomics 0404007, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2004.
- Joakim Westerlund & Mauro Costantini, 2009.
"Panel cointegration and the neutrality of money,"
Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-26, February.
- Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, EconWPA.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.