Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Is the Natural Rate a Reference Point?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Marika Karanassou
  • Dennis Snower

Abstract

This paper explores the two common concepts of the natural rate of unemployment: (i) the stable, long-run equilibrium rate of unemployment; and (ii) the equilibrium unemployment rate at which there is no tendency for this rate to change, given the exogenous variables. The first concept (common in the theoretical literature) is impractical for empirical assessment, since it is generally impossible to find reliable estimates of the long-run values of the exogenous variables and since it is inherently unable to provide an analysis of how the NRU changes through time. Consequently, the second concept is used in empirical studies. The paper shows that this latter natural rate is not necessarily a reference point (a value towards which the equilibrium unemployment rate tends with the passage of time). Specifically, it is not a reference point in multi-equation labour market models containing lagged endogenous variables and exogenous variables with non-zero long-run growth rates. Since these features are exceedingly common, our analysis casts serious doubts on the usefulness of the natural rate hypothesis as a predictive tool.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Archive Discussion Papers with number 9623.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkewp:9623

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Malet Street, London WC1E 7HX, UK
Phone: 44-20- 76316429
Fax: 44-20- 76316416
Web page: http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
  2. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  3. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1995. "A Contribution to Unemployment Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Assar Lindbeck & Dennis J. Snower, 1989. "The Insider-Outsider Theory of Employment and Unemployment," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262074x, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkewp:9623. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.