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Ajustes Dinamicos En Las Tasas De Paro: Espana Vs Portugal

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Author Info
Roberto Bande (Universidad de Santiago de Compostela)

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Abstract

En este trabajo se aborda la diferencia entre la tasa de desempleo en España y Portugal. Las teorias tradicionales explican los movimientos del desempleo como resultado de los movimientos de la Tasa Natural de Paro o como resultado de shocks temporales con efectos permanentes sobre el desempleo, bajo la hipotesis de histeresis. En este trabajo, se sigue el enfoque de la Teoria de la Reaccion en Cadena, que interpreta los movimientos del desempleo como resultado de la interaccion de un conjunto de procesos de ajuste retardado presentes en el mercado de trabajo con las caracteristicas dinamicas de los shocks. En este contexto, encontramos que el desempleo puede haber crecido mas en España que en Portugal debido a los largos periodos de ajuste necesarios para interiorizar los efectos de un shock temporal, mientras que los efectos de los shocks permanentes necesitan largos periodos de tiempo para manifestarse. Por ultimo, encontramos que el aumento de la tasa de paro española no puede justificarse tan solo en terminos de un aumento de la tasa natural, ya que mas del 57% del cambio total entre 1980 y 1995 se debe a los procesos de ajuste.

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Paper provided by IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia in its series Documentos de trabajo - Análise Económica with number 0020.

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Handle: RePEc:edg:anecon:0020

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  1. Roberto Bande, . "Lagged Adjustment Processes And The Natural Rate In Spain: A Comparison With Portugal," Documentos de trabajo - Análise Económica 0021, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia. [Downloadable!]
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