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Characteristics of Unemployment Dynamics. The Chain Reaction Approach

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Author Info
Karanassou, Marika (Department of Economics, Queen Mary and Westfield College, London, United Kingdom)
Snower, Dennis J. (The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany)

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze and estimate salient characteristics of unemployment dynamics. Movements in unemployment are viewed as "chain reactions" of responses to labour market shocks, working their way through systems of interacting lagged adjustment processes. In the context of estimated labour market systems for Germany, the UK, and the US, we construct aggregate measures of unemployment responses to temporary and permanent shocks. These measures are temporal and quantitative. Furthermore, we estimate the contributions of individual lagged adjustments to these aggregate measures. Our empirical results indicate that lagged adjustment processes play an important part in explaining how temporary and permanent shocks affect unemployment, that temporary and permanent shocks can yield quite different inter-country comparisons of unemployment effects, and that the quantitative and temporal measures can also yield markedly different inter-country comparisons.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-205.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 205.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:205

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Related research
Keywords: Unemployment; Natural rate hypothesis; Labour markets; Employment; Adjustment costs;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Private Pensions
J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1987. "Strike and Lock-Out Threats and Fiscal Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 760-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1994. "How Are Product Demand Changes Transmitted to the Labour Market?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 386-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J., 1987. "Union activity, unemployment persistence and wage-employment ratchets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 157-167. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Layard, Richard & Bean, Charles, 1989. " Why Does Unemployment Persist?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 91(2), pages 371-96.
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  7. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-91, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1990. "Cooperation, Harassment, and Involuntary Unemployment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 631-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Nickell, S J, 1978. "Fixed Costs, Employment and Labour Demand over the Cycle," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 45(180), pages 329-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 899, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2006. "Labour Market Flexibility and Regional Unemployment Rate Dynamics: Spain (1980-1995)," ERSA conference papers ersa06p53, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2004. "Unemployment in the EU: Institutions, Prices and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Roberto Bande, . "Ajustes Dinamicos En Las Tasas De Paro: Espana Vs Portugal," Documentos de trabajo - Análise Económica 0020, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Xavier Raurich & Hector Sala & Valeri Sorolla, . "Employment and public capital in Spain," Working Papers 2001-21, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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