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Unemployment in the European Union: A Dynamic Reappraisal

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Author Info
Karanassou, Marika (Queen Mary, University of London and IZA Bonn)
Sala, Hector (Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona)
Snower, Dennis J. () (Birkbeck College, University of London, CEPR and IZA Bonn)

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Abstract

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are viewed as the outcome of the interplay between labor market shocks and prolonged lagged adjustment processes. We present an empirical analysis that distinguishes between unemployment movements arising from longrun equilibrium changes and those arising from lagged intertemporal adjustments. This analysis has far-reaching policy implications. Our analysis shows that the rise in EU unemployment over the 1970s and first part of the 1980s was due largely to permanent shocks (especially the rise in working-age population and the decline in capital formation), whereas the unemployment increase in the first part of the 1990s was due largely to temporary shocks (especially the fall in competitiveness and the rise in real interest rates).

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 531.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp531

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Related research
Keywords: unemployment natural rate NAIRU labor market shocks employment labor force participation wage determination intertemporal adjustments homogeneous dynamic panels panel unit root tests

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Private Pensions
J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Job security, employment and wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 851-879, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1997. "Is the natural rate a reference point?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 559-569, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 47-104, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bentolila, Samuel & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1994. "A model of labor demand with linear adjustment costs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 303-326, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  8. Robertson, D & Symons, J, 1992. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 175-89, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "Unemployment Invariance," IZA Discussion Papers 530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J, 1998. "How Labour Market Flexibility Affects Unemployment: Long-Term Implications of the Chain Reaction Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 832-49, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Harris, R. & Tzavalis, E., 1996. "Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels," Discussion Papers 96/04, University of Exeter, School of Business and Economics.
  15. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  20. Edmund Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Structural booms," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 83-126, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1993. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-56, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  22. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hofer, Helmut & Kunst, Robert M. & Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang & Schuh, Ulrich & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Some Evidence on the Relevance of the Chain-reaction Theory in Selected Countries," Economics Series 207, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 899, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2006. "Labour Market Flexibility and Regional Unemployment Rate Dynamics: Spain (1980-1995)," ERSA conference papers ersa06p53, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2004. "Unemployment in the EU: Institutions, Prices and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 151-180, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jürgen Kromphardt & Camille Logeay, 2007. "Changes in the Balance of Power Between the Wage and Price Setters and the Central Bank: Consequences for the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU," Kiel Working Papers 1354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Raurich, Xavier & Sala, Hector & Sorolla, Valeri, 2004. "Unemployment, Growth and Fiscal Policy: New Insights on the Hysteresis Hypothesis," IZA Discussion Papers 1127, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Thierry Warin, 2006. "From Full Employment to the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Survey," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0601, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Discussion Papers 2008-08, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2008. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Kiel Working Papers 1441, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "The Macroeconomics of the Labor Market: Three Fundamental Views," Kiel Working Papers 1378, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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