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Panel cointegration and the neutrality of money

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  • Joakim Westerlund

    ()

  • Mauro Costantini

    ()

Abstract

Most econometric methods for testing the proposition of long-run monetary neutrality rely on the assumption that money and real output do not cointegrate, a result that is usually supported by the data. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that a violation of the noncointegration assumption is likely to result in a nonrejection of the neutrality proposition. To alleviate this problem, two new and more powerful panel cointegration tests are proposed that can be used under very general conditions. The tests are then applied to a panel covering 10 countries between 1870 and 1986. The results suggest money and real output are cointegrated, and that the neutrality proposition therefore must be rejected.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-26

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:36:y:2009:i:1:p:1-26

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary neutrality; Panel cointegration testing; E30; E50; C12; C22; C23;

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References

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  1. Weber, Axel A, 1994. "Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 1042, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Mendizabal, Hugo Rodriguez, 2006. "The Behavior of Money Velocity in High and Low Inflation Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 209-228, February.
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  7. Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
  8. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
  9. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  10. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina-Ioana Tarcolea, 2006. "Combining Significance of Correlated Statistics with Application to Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 647-663, October.
  11. Serletis, A & Moustas, Z, 1997. "International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money," Papers 9704, Calgary - Department of Economics.
  12. Evans, P, 1996. "Growth and the Neutrality of Money," ISER Discussion Paper 0398, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  13. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  14. repec:fth:osakae:398 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2006. "A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-216, March.
  16. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  17. Crowder, William J, 1998. "The Long-Run Link between Money Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 229-43, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mauro Costantini & Claudio Lupi, 2013. "A Simple Panel-CADF Test for Unit Roots," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 276-296, 04.
  2. Jin Lee, 2012. "Nonparametric Testing for Long-Run Neutrality with Applications to US Money and Output Data," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 183-202, August.
  3. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2011. "A sieve bootstrap range test for poolability in dependent cointegrated panels," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2011/2, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
  4. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2012. "Savings and Investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2012/2, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.

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