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Unemployment, growth and fiscal policy: new insights on the hysteresis hypothesis

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Author Info
Xabier Raurich () (Universitat Girona and Creb, Universitat de Barcelona)
Hector Sala (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and IZA)
Valeri Sorolla (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

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Abstract

We develop a growth model with unemployment due to imperfections in the labor market. In this model, wage inertia and balanced budget rules cause a complementarity between capital and employment capable of explaining the existence of multiple equilibrium paths. Hysteresis is viewed as the result of a selection between these different paths. We use this model to argue that, in contrast to the US, those fiscal policies followed by most of the European countries after the shocks of the 1970’s may have played a central role in generating hysteresis.

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File URL: http://iei.uv.es/docs/wp_internos/RePEc/pdf/iei_0502.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Economics Institute, University of Valencia in its series Working Papers with number 0502.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iei:wpaper:0502

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Related research
Keywords: unemployment; hysteresis; multiple equilibria; economic growth; fiscal policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 1999. "Balanced-Budget Rules and Indeterminacy of the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 399-409, July.
  2. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis, 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: a dynamic reappraisal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-273, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
    Other versions:
  4. Assar Lindbeck & Dennis J. Snower, 2001. "Insiders versus Outsiders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 165-188, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Manning, Alan, 1992. "Multiple equilibria in the British labour market : Some empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1333-1365, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 182-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  10. Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304. [Downloadable!]
  11. Coimbra, Rui & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2000. "Unions, Increasing Returns and Endogenous Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 229, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  12. Henry, Brian & Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J, 2000. "Adjustment Dynamics and the Natural Rate: An Account of UK Unemployment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 178-203, January.
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  13. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "Unemployment Invariance," IZA Discussion Papers 530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Miquel A. Leon-Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Unemployment, hysteresis and transition," Working Paper Series 234, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Mortensen, Dale T, 1989. " The Persistence and Indeterminancy of Unemployment in Search Equilibrium," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 91(2), pages 347-70.
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  16. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Piscitelli, Laura, et al, 2000. "A Test for Strong Hysteresis," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1-2), pages 59-78, April. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Salvador Ortigueira, 2003. "Unemployment Benefits and the Persistence of European Unemployment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 27, Society for Computational Economics.
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  19. Gasper A. Garofalo & Steven Yamarik, 2002. "Regional Convergence: Evidence From A New State-By-State Capital Stock Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 316-323, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Hughes Hallett, A. J. & Piscitelli, Laura, 2002. "Testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 303-327, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Den Haan, Wouter, 2003. "Temporary Shocks and Unavoidable Transitions to a High-Unemployment Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 3704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Manning, Alan, 1990. "Imperfect Competition, Multiple Equilibria and Unemployment Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 151-62, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Discussion Papers 2008-08, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2006. "The (Ir)relevance of the NRU for Policy Making: The Case of Denmark," IZA Discussion Papers 2397, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3712, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Congregado, Emilio & Golpe, Antonio A. & Parker, Simon C., 2009. "The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Hysteresis, Business Cycles and Government Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 4093, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1326, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "The Macroeconomics of the Labor Market: Three Fundamental Views," Kiel Working Papers 1378, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. José Ramón García & Hector Sala, 2006. "The Tax System Incidence on Unemployment: A Country-Specific Analysis for the OECD Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 2226, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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