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How much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Bartosz Mackowiak
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We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea interest rate shocks can account for a significant fraction of the external spillover effects. We conclude that theoretical models of advanced transition economies and policy rules for these economies should feature a prominent role for external shocks.
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number
SFB649DP2005-061.
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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005Date of revision:
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Keywords: Vector autoregression Granger causal priority transition economies external shocks Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies
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