How Important are Oil and Money Shocks in Explaining Housing Market Fluctuations in an Oil-exporting Country?: Evidence from Iran
AbstractThis paper analyzes the effects of oil price and monetary shocks on the Iranian housing market in a Bayesian SVAR framework. The prior information for the contemporaneous identification of the SVAR model is derived from standard economic theory. To deal with uncertainty in the identification schemes, I calculate posterior model probabilities for the SVAR model identified by a different set of over-identification restrictions. In order to draw accurate inferences regarding the effectiveness of the shocks in an over-identified Bayesian SVAR, a Bayesian Monte Carlo integration method is applied. The findings indicate that oil price shocks explain a substantial portion of housing market fluctuations. Housing prices increase in response to a positive credit shock, but only with a noticeably smaller magnitude when compared with the response to a positive oil price shock.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34041.
Date of creation: 06 Mar 2010
Date of revision: 01 Mar 2011
Housing market fluctuations; Oil price shocks; Credit shocks; Bayesian Structural VAR; Bayesian model averaging (BMA); Bayesian Monte Carlo integration method;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2011-10-22 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-CIS-2011-10-22 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-CWA-2011-10-22 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-ENE-2011-10-22 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-URE-2011-10-22 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Garratt, Anthony & Koop, Gary & Mise, Emi & Vahey, Shaun P., 2009.
"Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 480-491.
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998.
"Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
- Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1999. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alvin Tan & Graham Voss, 2003. "Consumption and Wealth in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 39-56, 03.
- Lastrapes, W.D., 2000.
"The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations,"
00-479, Georgia - College of Business Administration, Department of Economics.
- Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 40-74, March.
- Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003.
"Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2000. "Likelihood-preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Working Paper 2000-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007.
"Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2007-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 0018, European Central Bank.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2000.
"Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
- Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2001. "Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," ZEI Working Papers B 29-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
- van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Jarociński, Marek & Smets, Frank, 2008.
"House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy,"
Working Paper Series
0891, European Central Bank.
- Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Hassan Mohammadi, 2009. "Oil prices and competitiveness: time series evidence from six oil-producing countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 98-118, January.
- repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2007:x:54 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jakob B Madsen, 2011. "A q Model of House Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
- P J Forsyth & J A Kay, 1980. "The economic implications of North Sea Oil Revenues," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, July.
- Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.