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The Path of Exchange Rates in the Polish Economic Transformation

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  • Lucjan T. Orlowski

Abstract

This study examines the path of adjustments of the exchange rate system in the transforming economy of Poland. It emphasizes the relative advantage of flexible exchange rates over the currency peg. It focuses on several aspects of the exchange rate policy that have not been adequately discussed. One of them is the rationale for returning to a currency peg to the leading currencies of the European Union (EU) and, in the future, to the Euro as a part of necessary preparations of the economy of Poland for accession to the Union. A return to a peg means the reversal from the path of the exchange rate system adjustments that has prevailed during the first five years, or in the first stage of the economic transformation. The study evaluates the rationale of applying a currency peg, thus “borrowing” monetary policy credibility from abroad, when the program of disinflation fails and the government loses a chance to stabilize the economy. High inflation that persists over a long time period is usually caused by automatic indexation, and adaptive expectations. Such chronic or inertial inflation continues long after the expiration of corrective inflation, or inflation stemming from price liberalization, cuts in subsidies and trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucjan T. Orlowski, 1996. "The Path of Exchange Rates in the Polish Economic Transformation," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0090, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0090
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "Economic Transition and the Exchange-Rate Regime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 147-152, May.
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    6. Michael Bruno, 1992. "Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 741-777, December.
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    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Selahattin Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 1998. "Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies," Working Papers 1998-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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