Structural Breaks in Volatility: Evidence from the OECD Real Exchange Rates
AbstractThis paper analyses whether volatility changes in the real exchange rates (RERs) of the OECD industrial countries are associated with a specific nominal exchange rate regime. To that end, we examine RER behaviour during the period 1960-2003, thereby covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on Hansen’s (1997) approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (1993) and Andrews and Ploberger (1994). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. For most countries in our sample, there is evidence in favour of the non-neutrality of the nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2004-22.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.fedea.net
Other versions of this item:
- Amalia Morales Zumaquero & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 2005. "Structural Breaks in Volatility: Evidence for the OECD Real Exchange Rates," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2005/01, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-03-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2005-03-20 (International Finance)
- NEP-RMG-2005-03-20 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
- John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
- Grilli, Vittorio & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1991. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate : Evidence from the United States and Great Britain, 1885-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 191-212, April.
- Hong Liang, 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility-Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 98/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Tom Doan, . "APGRADIENTTEST: RATS procedure to perform Andrews-Ploberger Structural Break Test for GARCH/Maximum Likelihood," Statistical Software Components RTS00007, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "REGHBREAK: RATS procedure to perform structural break test with bootstrapped p-values," Statistical Software Components RTS00176, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, . "APBREAKTEST: RATS procedure to implement Andrews-Ploberger Structural Break Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00006, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992.
"Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals,"
529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Exchange Rate Choices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1877, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Jorge Carrera & Guillermo Vuletin, 2003. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes on Real Exchange Rate Volatility. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c67, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
- Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Exchange rate choices," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 43(Jun), pages 99-136.
- Namkee Ahn & Juan Ramón García & José A. Herce, . "Demographic Uncertainty and Health Care Expenditure in Spain," Working Papers 2005-07, FEDEA.
- Ana Carolina Ortega Masagué, . "La situación laboral de los inmigrantes en España: Un análisis descriptivo," Working Papers 2005-08, FEDEA.
- Corinne Mette, . "Wellbeing and dependency among European elderly: The role of social integration," Working Papers 2005-12, FEDEA.
- Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Pedro Rodriguez, 2010.
"Linkages in international stock markets: evidence from a classification procedure,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2081-2089.
- Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Pedro N. Rodríguez, . "Linkages in international stock markets: Evidence from a classification procedure," Working Papers 2004-23, FEDEA.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmen Arias).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.