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Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates

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  • Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia
  • Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon

Abstract

This paper attempts to determine whether or not nominal exchange rate regimes affect the volatility of bilateral and effective real exchange rates. To that end, we examine the real exchange rate behaviour for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries during the 1960-2006 period, therefore covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on the Hansen's (Hansen, B.E., 1997. Approximate asymptotic P values for structural-change tests. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15 (1), 60-67) approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (Andrews, D., 1993. Test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica 61 (4), 821-856) and Andrews and Ploberger (Andrews, D., Ploberger, W., 1994. Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica 62 (6), 1383-1414). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. Results suggest that there is clear evidence in favour of the non-neutrality of nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility for developed countries, but not in the case of developing or emerging countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 139-168

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:1:p:139-168

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Exchange rate regimes Bilateral and effective real exchange rates Volatility;

References

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  1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  3. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February.
  4. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2007. "Implicit bands in the Spanish peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate, 1965-1998," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 921-932.
  5. Sin, Chor-Yiu & White, Halbert, 1996. "Information criteria for selecting possibly misspecified parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 207-225.
  6. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  7. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  8. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
  10. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera, 2004. "Could The Exchange Rate Regime Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 067, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  11. Christopher Kent & Rafic Naja, 1998. "Effective Real Exchange Rates and Irrelevant Nominal Exchange-rate Regimes," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9811, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  12. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  13. Hong Liang, 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility," IMF Working Papers 98/147, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  15. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
  16. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  19. Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Exchange Rate Choices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1877, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  20. Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Exchange rate choices," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 43(Jun), pages 99-136.
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Cited by:
  1. Cizek, P., 2010. "Modelling Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Nonstationary Series," Discussion Paper 2010-84, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Chen, Wei-Peng & Choudhry, Taufiq & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2013. "The extreme value in crude oil and US dollar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 191-210.

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