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Effective Real Exchange Rates and Irrelevant Nominal Exchange-rate Regimes

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Author Info
Christopher Kent (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Rafic Naja (McKinsey and Company, Inc.)
Abstract

We examine the relationship between the short-term volatility of the effective Real Exchange Rate (RER) and the degree of flexibility of the nominal exchange rate. Existing evidence demonstrates that the short-term variance of bilateral RERs is on average about 12 times higher under floating nominal exchange rate regimes than under fixed regimes. By comparison, based on pooled results across a set of countries with low and stable inflation and stable growth rates from 1978 to 1994, the effective RER is only twice as volatile under floating regimes compared with fixed regimes. Although this difference is statistically significant, results within countries show that for most countries there was no significant increase in effective RER volatility when moving to more flexible exchange-rate regimes. Surprisingly, there are even some countries for which volatility is lower under more flexible exchange-rate regimes. In part our findings reflect the fact that effective RERs are an average of bilateral RERs. Also, we suggest that there is a difference between a fixed exchange-rate regime during Bretton Woods and a fixed exchange-rate regime post-Bretton Woods.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp9811.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9811

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Related research
Keywords: nominal exchange-rate regime; real effective exchange rates; volatility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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  1. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. " Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 100(1), pages 247-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Eichengreen, Barry, 1988. "Real exchange rate behavior under alternative international monetary regimes : Interwar evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 363-371, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Black, Stanley W., 1986. "Real exchange rates and deviations from purchasing power parity under floating exchange rates A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 215-220, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1996. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," NBER Working Papers 5650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Savvides, Andreas, 1996. "CFA Franc Zone Membership and Exchange Rate Variability," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 52-68, March.
  12. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Abu Wahid & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2009. "Does Nominal Devaluation Precede Real Devaluation? The Case of The Philippines," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 47-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bagella , Michele & Becchetti , Leonardo & Hasan , Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Research Discussion Papers 15/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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