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Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles

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  • Theptida Sopraseuth

    (Universite d'Evry Val d'Essonne)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regimes on international business cycles and focuses on the consequences of membership to the European Monetary System. The volatility puzzle uncovered by Baxter and Stockman [1989, Journal of Monetary Economics 23, 377–401] after assessing the consequences of the Bretton Woods system turns out to be a robust stylized fact: real and nominal exchange rates display a higher volatility under floating rates while the variability of macroeconomic quantities remains unchanged across exchange rate regimes. Besides, there is evidence that fixed rates are associated with enhanced comovement in output, consumption and investment.We find that a two-country model, featuring monopolistic competition, pricing-to-market, and price stickiness, captures all of the empirical features of the data but one; namely the stronger output comovement following the transition to fixed rates. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1094-2025(02)00017-0
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 338-361

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:338-361

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Keywords: Exchange rate regimes; Monopolistic competition; Price rigidities; Pricing-to-market;

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References

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2001. "Why Is the Business-Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-Rate Regimes?," Working Papers 53, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  5. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Into the Mussa Puzzle: Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 437, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Sep 2000.
  8. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Taylor, Mark P, 1995. "Macro-economic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-polarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 321-31, May.
  11. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates in Sticky Price Models of International Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hairault, J.O. & Portier, F., 1992. "Money New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Business Cycles," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.32, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  13. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  14. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 1999. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9917, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  17. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  18. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  2. Martin Gaechter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60, May.
  3. Kollmann, Robert, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of nominal exchange rate regimes: new insights into the role of price dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 275-292, March.
  4. Cunha, Alexandre B., 2005. "A Direct Proof of the First Welfare Theorem," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_30, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  5. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2013. "Regímenes Cambiarios y Desempeño Macroeconómico: Una Evaluación de la Literatura," Working Papers 2013-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  6. Saadet Kasman & Duygu Ayhan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 37-58.

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