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Effets réels des régimes de change dans les pays en développement

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  • Ella Oyono, Dieudonné

    (CIRPÉE)

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    Abstract

    Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect macroeconomic fluctuations? This paper answers the question by an econometric analysis. The results obtained indicate that exchange rate regime has real effects; floating exchange rate regimes are associated with smaller output volatility. These results explain why countries in the last decade have abandoned pegged exchange rates and constitute a step towards the identification of criteria for the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime. Lorsqu’un pays passe d’un régime de change à un autre, ce changement affecte-t-il les variables macroéconomiques telle que la production ? Ce texte répond à cette question en régressant la volatilité de la production sur les types de régime et un certain nombre de variables de contrôle. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que le régime de change a des effets réels; de plus, de faibles fluctuations de la production sont associées aux régimes de change « non fixes ». Il apparaît donc que l’abandon du régime fixe observé au cours de la dernière décennie se justifie par un objectif de stabilité de la production. Ceci constitue un pas vers l’identification des critères d’un régime de change optimal.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 82 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (septembre)
    Pages: 319-340

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:82:y:2006:i:3:p:319-340

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    1. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Osakwe, Patrick & Schembri, Lawrence, 1999. "Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico," Working Papers 99-10, Bank of Canada.
    5. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May.
    6. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    7. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," IDB Publications 6467, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    9. Bailliu, Jeannine & Lafrance, Robert & Perrault, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 381-414, Winter.
    10. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
    13. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    14. Terence C. Mills & Geoffrey E. Wood, 1993. "Does the exchange rate regime affect the economy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-20.
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