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Foreign Debt and Fear of Floating: A Theoretical Exploration

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Author Info
Michael Bleaney
F. Gulcin Ozkan
Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the denomination of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime. Unlike indexed domestic debt, foreign debt is subject to valuation effects from real exchange rate shocks. In a standard set-up, where a peg functions only as a nominal anchor, more foreign debt makes pegging less attractive, because it increases the value of a flexible exchange rate as a shock absorber. This result can be reversed if we incorporate the stylized fact that pegs have lower real exchange rate volatility, and if external shocks are sufficiently large relative to domestic shocks.

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Paper provided by University of Nottingham, School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 08/03.

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Keywords: inflation output public debt and exchange rate regimes

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  2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Honig, Adam, 2005. "Fear of floating and domestic liability dollarization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 289-307, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hasan, Shahriar & Wallace, Myles, 1996. "Real exchange rate volatility and exchange rate regimes: Evidence from long-term data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 67-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 117-214. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 11508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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