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Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Discipline - Only Hard Pegs Make a Difference

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  • Manuela Francisco

    ()
    (Universidade do Minho
    University of Nottingham)

  • Michael Bleaney

    ()
    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

Previous research has suggested that pegged exchange rates are associated with lower inflation than floating rates. In which direction does the causality run? Using data from a large sample of developing countries from 1984 to 2000, we confirm that "hard" pegs (currency boards or a shared currency) reduce inflation and money growth. There is no evidence that "soft" pegs confer any monetary discipline. The choice between soft pegs and floats is determined by inflation: when inflation is low, pegs tend to be chosen and sustained, and when inflation is high, either floats are chosen or there are frequent regime switches.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 6/2003.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:6/2003

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  1. Bailliu, Jeannine & Lafrance, Robert & Perrault, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 381-414, Winter.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Masson, Paul R., 2001. "Exchange rate regime transitions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 571-586, April.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  6. Fielding, David & Bleaney, Michael, 2000. "Monetary Discipline and Inflation in Developing Countries: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 521-38, July.
  7. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  9. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Helge Berger & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 263, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
  12. Paolo Mauro & Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoit Coeuré, 2000. "Big and Small Currencies: The Regional Connection," Working Papers 2000-10, CEPII research center.
  14. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
  15. Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-78, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Mafi-Kreft, Elham & Kreft, Steven F., 2006. "Importing credible monetary policy: A way for transition economies to fight inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-6, July.

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