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Is there a link between dollarization and banking crises?

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Author Info
Adam Honig (Department of Economics, Amherst College, USA)

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Abstract

I estimate a multivariate probit model to identify key variables that are predictive of banking crises. To add to the literature on this subject, I focus on the role played by unofficial dollarization of domestic banking systems. Unofficial dollarization is a source of vulnerability for emerging markets as large depreciations render both domestic firms and banks unable to pay dollar-denominated debt. Surprisingly, I find only weak evidence that unofficial dollarization affects the probability of a banking crisis. This finding casts doubt on the widely held belief that liability dollarization is a significant source of risk for emerging markets and developing nations, although there are still reasons to believe that dollarization remains a significant source of risk. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jid.1285
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of International Development.

Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1123-1135
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Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:18:y:2006:i:8:p:1123-1135

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Huw Pill & Mahmood Pradhan, 1995. "Financial Indicators and Financial Change in Africa and Asia," IMF Working Papers 95/123, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," RES Working Papers 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-115, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Preventing Financial Crises: An International Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Honig, Adam, 2005. "Fear of floating and domestic liability dollarization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 289-307, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Vicente Galbis, 1993. "High Real Interest Rates Under Financial Liberalization: Is There a Problem?," IMF Working Papers 93/7, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Domac, Ilker & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2003. "Banking crises and exchange rate regimes: is there a link?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 41-72, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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