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Private Inflows when Crises are Anticipated: A Case Study of Korea

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  • Michael P. Dooley
  • Inseok Shin

Abstract

Models of financial crises based on distortions in capital markets have strong implications for the behavior of investors leading up to crises. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that deregulation of financial markets in Korea provided the incentives and opportunities for a sequence of capital inflows and crisis. We show that deregulation was associated with a sharp declines in the franchise value of Korean banks. Banks responded by expanding their balance sheets and accumulating high risk, high return assets. The regulatory mechanism appears to have failed because of the failure to consolidate onshore and offshore activities of banks. Foreign banks that supplied deposits to Korean banks behaved as if they were insured in that they did not discriminate between weak and strong Korean banks. Finally, this expectation was validated at the time of crisis by government intervention that allowed foreign banks to liquidate their claims on Korean banks.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7992.

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Date of creation: Nov 2000
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Publication status: published as Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 1999. "Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7992

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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  4. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
  5. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
  7. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Dooley, Michael & Leipziger, Danny & Walsh, Carl, 1996. "The lender of last resort function under a currency board : the case of Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1648, The World Bank.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  9. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo Valdés, 1997. "Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 11, Central Bank of Chile.
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Cited by:
  1. Joshua Aizenman, 2002. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Working Papers 8900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Degryse, H.A. & Havrylchyk, O. & Jurzyk, E. & Kozak, S., 2009. "Foreign Bank Entry and Credit Allocation in Emerging Markets," Discussion Paper 2009-94, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne, 2005. "Currency composition of debt, risk premia and the 1997 Korean crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 459-471, May.
  4. Thomas D. Willett & Aida Budiman & Arthur Denzau & Gab-Je Jo & Cesar Ramos & John Thomas, 2001. "The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses about International Financial Behavior during the Asian Crisis," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-06, Claremont Colleges, revised Sep 2001.
  5. Thomas D. Willett & Nancy Neiman Auerbach, 2002. "The Political Economy of Perverse Financial Liberalization: Examples from the Asian Crisis," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-26, Claremont Colleges.
  6. Thomas D. Willett, 2001. "Truth in Advertising and The Great Dollarization Scam," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-05, Claremont Colleges.
  7. Diamond, Douglas W. & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2001. "Banks, short-term debt and financial crises: theory, policy implications and applications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-71, June.
  8. Chue, Timothy K. & Cook, David, 2008. "Sudden stops and liability dollarization: Evidence from Asia's financial intermediaries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 436-452, September.
  9. Bems, Rudolfs & Jönsson, Kristian, 2002. "Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets and the Optimal Bailout Policy," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 520, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 31 Oct 2003.
  10. Timothy Chue & David Cook, 2004. "Sudden Stops and Liability Dollarization: Evidence from East Asian Financial Intermediaries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 646, Econometric Society.
  11. Joshua Aizenman, 2009. "Financial Crisis and the Paradox of Under- and Over-Regulation," NBER Working Papers 15018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seo, Jeonghee, 2003. "Multiple equilibria and currency crisis: evidence for Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 681-696, October.
  13. Marek Dabrowski & Malgorzata Antczak & Monika Blaszkiewicz & Malgorzata Jakubiak & Wojciech Paczynski & Marcin Sasin, 2001. "The Episodes of Currency Crisis in Latin American and Asian Economies," CASE Network Reports 0039, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  14. Tobias Knedlik & Johannes Ströbel, 2006. "The role of banking portfolios in the transmission from currency crises to banking crises - potential effects of Basel II," IWH Discussion Papers 21, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  15. Degryse, Hans & Havrylchyk, Olena & Jurzyk, Emilia & Kozak, Sylwester, 2012. "Foreign bank entry, credit allocation and lending rates in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from Poland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2949-2959.
  16. Willett, Thomas D., 2001. "Truth in advertising and the great dollarization scam," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 279-289, April.
  17. Frederic S. Mishkin & Andrew Crockett & Michael P. Dooley & Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2003. "Financial Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 93-154 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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