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Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea

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  • Michael P. Dooley
  • Inseok Shin

Abstract

Models of financial crises based on distortions in capital markets have strong implications for the behavior of investors leading up to crises. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that deregulation of financial markets in Korea provided the incentives and opportunities for a sequence of capital inflows and crisis. We show that deregulation was associated with a sharp declines in the franchise value of Korean banks. Banks responded by expanding their balance sheets and accumulating high risk, high return assets. The regulatory mechanism appears to have failed because of the failure to consolidate onshore and offshore activities of banks. Foreign banks that supplied deposits to Korean banks behaved as if they were insured in that they did not discriminate between weak and strong Korean banks. Finally, this expectation was validated at the time of crisis by government intervention that allowed foreign banks to liquidate their claims on Korean banks.
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  • Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 1999. "Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1999:i:sep:x:11
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    2. In‐Bong Ha & Bong‐Soo Lee & Chongcheul Cheong, 2007. "What Caused the Korean Currency Crisis in 1997?: Weak Fundamentals or Self‐fulfilling Expectations," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 195-206, June.
    3. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 473-494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne, 2005. "Currency composition of debt, risk premia and the 1997 Korean crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 459-471, May.
    5. Dooley, Michael P., 2000. "International financial architecture and strategic default: can financial crises be less painful?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 361-377, December.
    6. Degryse, H.A. & Havrylchyk, O. & Jurzyk, E. & Kozak, S., 2009. "Foreign Bank Entry and Credit Allocation in Emerging Markets," Other publications TiSEM fa54a876-1262-44c9-8099-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Okabe, Yasunobu, 2013. "Financial Restructuring after the 1997 Crisis and Impact of the Lehman Shock: Path Dependence of Financial Systems in Korea and Thailand," Working Papers 51, JICA Research Institute.
    8. Diamond, Douglas W. & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2001. "Banks, short-term debt and financial crises: theory, policy implications and applications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-71, June.
    9. Timothy Chue & David Cook, 2004. "Sudden Stops and Liability Dollarization: Evidence from East Asian Financial Intermediaries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 646, Econometric Society.
    10. Marek Dabrowski & Malgorzata Antczak & Monika Blaszkiewicz & Malgorzata Jakubiak & Wojciech Paczynski & Marcin Sasin, 2001. "The Episodes of Currency Crisis in Latin American and Asian Economies," CASE Network Reports 0039, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    11. Degryse, Hans & Havrylchyk, Olena & Jurzyk, Emilia & Kozak, Sylwester, 2012. "Foreign bank entry, credit allocation and lending rates in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from Poland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2949-2959.
    12. Bems, Rudolfs & Jönsson, Kristian, 2002. "Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets and the Optimal Bailout Policy," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 520, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Oct 2004.
    13. Frederic S. Mishkin & Andrew Crockett & Michael P. Dooley & Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2003. "Financial Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 93-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Knedlik, Tobias & Ströbel, Johannes, 2006. "The role of banking portfolios in the transmission from currency crises to banking crises - potential effects of Basel II," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2006, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Anne O. Krueger & Jungho Yoo, 2002. "Chaebol Capitalism and the Currency-Financial Crisis in Korea," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 601-662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seo, Jeonghee, 2003. "Multiple equilibria and currency crisis: evidence for Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 681-696, October.
    17. Chue, Timothy K. & Cook, David, 2008. "Sudden stops and liability dollarization: Evidence from Asia's financial intermediaries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 436-452, September.
    18. Joshua Aizenman, 2009. "Financial Crisis and the Paradox of Under- and Over-Regulation," NBER Working Papers 15018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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