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Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea

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  • Michael P. Dooley
  • Inseok Shin

Abstract

Models of financial crises based on distortions in capital markets have strong implications for the behavior of investors leading up to crises. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that deregulation of financial markets in Korea provided the incentives and opportunities for a sequence of capital inflows and crisis. We show that deregulation was associated with a sharp declines in the franchise value of Korean banks. Banks responded by expanding their balance sheets and accumulating high risk, high return assets. The regulatory mechanism appears to have failed because of the failure to consolidate onshore and offshore activities of banks. Foreign banks that supplied deposits to Korean banks behaved as if they were insured in that they did not discriminate between weak and strong Korean banks. Finally, this expectation was validated at the time of crisis by government intervention that allowed foreign banks to liquidate their claims on Korean banks.
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  • Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 1999. "Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1999:i:sep:x:11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne, 2005. "Currency composition of debt, risk premia and the 1997 Korean crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 459-471, May.
    2. Thomas D. Willett, 2001. "Truth in Advertising and The Great Dollarization Scam," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-05, Claremont Colleges.
    3. Timothy Chue & David Cook, 2004. "Sudden Stops and Liability Dollarization: Evidence from East Asian Financial Intermediaries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 646, Econometric Society.
    4. Marek Dabrowski & Malgorzata Antczak & Monika Blaszkiewicz & Malgorzata Jakubiak & Wojciech Paczynski & Marcin Sasin, 2001. "The Episodes of Currency Crisis in Latin American and Asian Economies," CASE Network Reports 0039, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Thomas D. Willett & Aida Budiman & Arthur Denzau & Gab-Je Jo & Cesar Ramos & John Thomas, 2001. "The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses about International Financial Behavior during the Asian Crisis," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-06, Claremont Colleges, revised Sep 2001.
    6. Knedlik, Tobias & Ströbel, Johannes, 2006. "The role of banking portfolios in the transmission from currency crises to banking crises - potential effects of Basel II," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2006, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seo, Jeonghee, 2003. "Multiple equilibria and currency crisis: evidence for Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 681-696, October.
    8. Chue, Timothy K. & Cook, David, 2008. "Sudden stops and liability dollarization: Evidence from Asia's financial intermediaries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 436-452, September.
    9. Sylwester Kozak & Emilia M Jurzyk & Hans Degryse & Olena Havrylchyk, 2009. "Foreign Bank Entry and Credit Allocation in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/270, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Joshua Aizenman, 2009. "Financial Crisis and the Paradox of Under- and Over-Regulation," NBER Working Papers 15018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Thomas D. Willett & Nancy Neiman Auerbach, 2002. "The Political Economy of Perverse Financial Liberalization: Examples from the Asian Crisis," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-26, Claremont Colleges.
    12. Willett, Thomas D., 2001. "Truth in advertising and the great dollarization scam," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 279-289, April.
    13. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Chapters,in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 473-498 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Diamond, Douglas W. & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2001. "Banks, short-term debt and financial crises: theory, policy implications and applications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-71, June.
    15. Bems, Rudolfs & Jönsson, Kristian, 2002. "Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets and the Optimal Bailout Policy," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 520, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Oct 2004.
    16. Degryse, Hans & Havrylchyk, Olena & Jurzyk, Emilia & Kozak, Sylwester, 2012. "Foreign bank entry, credit allocation and lending rates in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from Poland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2949-2959.
    17. Frederic S. Mishkin & Andrew Crockett & Michael P. Dooley & Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2003. "Financial Policies," NBER Chapters,in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 93-154 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    Korea ; Financial crises;

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