Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets and the Optimal Bailout Policy
This paper develops a framework for analyzing optimal government bailout policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where financial crises are exogenous. Important elements of the model are that private borrowers only internalize part of the social cost of foreign borrowing in the emerging market and that the private sector is illiquid in the event of a crisis. The distinguishing feature of our paper is that it addresses the optimal bailout policy in an environment where there are both costs and benefits of bailouts, and where bailout guarantees potentially distort investment decisions in the private sector. We show that it is always optimal to commit to a bailout policy that only partially protects investment against inefficient liquidation, both in a centralized economy and a market economy. Due to overinvestment in the market economy, the government’s optimal level of bailout guarantees is lower than in the social optimum. Further, we show that, in contrast to a social planner, the government in the market economy should optimally bail out a smaller fraction of private investments when the probability of a crisis increases.
|Date of creation:||20 May 2002|
|Date of revision:||31 Oct 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001.
"Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1999. "Prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2174, The World Bank.
- Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis," Working Paper Series WP-98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 2015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001.
"A Corporate Balance Sheet Approach to Currency Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.14, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Working Papers 01.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998.
"Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
114, David K. Levine.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998.
"Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis,"
9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999.
"What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
- Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000.
"Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
- Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 1999.
"Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 2000. "Private Inflows when Crises are Anticipated: A Case Study of Korea," NBER Working Papers 7992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000.
"Optimal Currency Crises,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
00-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Optimal currency crises," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 177-230, December.
- Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard J. Arnott & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988.
"The Basic Analytics of Moral Hazard,"
NBER Working Papers
2484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Chang, 1999. "Understanding recent crises in emerging markets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 6-16.
- Gale, Douglas M & Vives, Xavier, 2001.
"Dollarization, Bailouts and the Stability of the Banking System,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Douglas Gale & Xavier Vives, 2002. "Dollarization, Bailouts, And The Stability Of The Banking System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 467-502, May.
- Douglas Gale & Xavier Vives, 2001. "Dollarization, bailouts, and the stability of the banking system," Proceedings 729, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Gale, Douglas & Vives, Xavier, 2002. "Dollarization, bailouts, and the stability of the banking system," HWWA Discussion Papers 185, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Claudia Helene Dziobek, 1997. "Lessons From Systemic Bank Restructuring; A Survey of 24 Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/161, International Monetary Fund.
- Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "Optimal bailout during currency and financial crises: A sequential game analysis," Memorandum 27/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- X. Freixas, 2000.
"Optimal Bail Out Policy, Conditionality and Constructive Ambiguity,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
49, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Xavier Freixas, 1999. "Optimal bail out policy, conditionality and constructive ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 400, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helena Lundin)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.