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High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?

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  • Kaminsky, Graciela L.
  • Leiderman, Leonardo

Abstract

High real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs. While they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch, high ex post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low-inflation policy. The latter hypothesis is tested using data for Argentina, Israel, and Mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid-1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 191-214

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:55:y:1998:i:1:p:191-214

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  1. Rebelo, S. & Vegh, C.A., 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," RCER Working Papers 405, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Cukierman, Alex & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Dynamics of Optimal Gradual Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 439-58, September.
  3. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "Inflation and Disinflation," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226471105, October.
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Kaminsky, Graciela L., 1991. "Debt relief and debt rescheduling : The optimal-contract approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 5-36, July.
  5. Hoe Ee Khor & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1991. "Interest Rates in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 91/12, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Karen K. Lewis & Martin D. Evans, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  8. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Stopping Hyperinflations Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 1810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hoe E. Khor & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 1991. "Interest Rates in Mexico: The Role of Exchange Rate Expectations and International Creditworthiness," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 850-871, December.
  10. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February.
  11. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1992. "Are High Interest Rates Effective for Stopping High Inflation? Some Skeptical Notes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(1), pages 55-69, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  3. Neven Valev & John A. Carlson, 2002. "Tenuous Financial Stability," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0210, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  4. Michael Bleaney & Marco Gundermann, 2002. "Stabilisations, Crises and the "Exit" Problem - A Theoretical Model," Macroeconomics 0207003, EconWPA.
  5. Saravelo, George & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 5027952, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  6. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  7. Prof.Dr. Cevat GERNI & Doc.Dr. O. Selcuk EMSEN & Dr. M. Kemal DEGER, 2005. "Erken Uyari Sistemlerý Yoluyla Turkiye’Deki Ekonomik Krizlerin Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 2(1), pages 39-62, November.
  8. Prakash Kannan, 2008. "Perspectiveson High Real Interest Rates in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 08/251, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Warwick J McKibbin & Will Martin, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis: Investigating Causes and Policy Responses," Departmental Working Papers 1998-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Leaning Against the Parity," Studies in Economics 0413, Department of Economics, University of Kent.

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