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Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests: an assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise

Author

Listed:
  • Chiara Pederzoli

    (University of Milan Bicocca
    CEFIN)

  • Costanza Torricelli

    (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
    CEFIN
    CeRP)

Abstract

Regulators’ stress tests on banks further stimulated an academic debate over systemic risk measures and their predictive content. Focusing on marked based measures, Acharya et al. (Rev Financ Stud 30(1):2–47, 2017) provide a theoretical background to use marginal expected shortfall (MES) for predicting the stress test results, and verify it on the 2009 Supervisory Capital Assessment Program of the US banking system. The aim of this paper is to further test the goodness of MES as a predictive measure, by analysing it in relation to the results of the 2014 European stress tests exercise conducted by the European Banking Authority. Our results underscore the importance of choosing the appropriate index to capture the systemic distress event. In fact MES based on a global market index does not show association with the stress test results, in contrast to Financial MES, which is based on a financial market index, and has a significant information and predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests: an assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 237-251, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:13:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10436-017-0294-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0294-z
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    Cited by:

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    2. Elena Giarda & Gloria Moroni, 2018. "The Degree of Poverty Persistence and the Role of Regional Disparities in Italy in Comparison with France, Spain and the UK," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 163-202, February.
    3. Beatrice Bertelli & Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2021. "The market price of greenness A factor pricing approach for Green Bonds," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0083, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    4. Mario Maggi & Maria-Laura Torrente & Pierpaolo Uberti, 2020. "Proper measures of connectedness," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 547-571, December.
    5. Elena Giarda & Gloria Moroni, 2018. "The Degree of Poverty Persistence and the Role of Regional Disparities in Italy in Comparison with France, Spain and the UK," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 163-202, February.
    6. Cristina Zeldea, 2020. "Modeling the Connection between Bank Systemic Risk and Balance-Sheet Liquidity Proxies through Random Forest Regressions," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, August.
    7. Dean Altshuler & Carlo Alberto Magni, 2015. "Introducing Aggregate Return on Investment as a Solution to the Contradiction Between Some PME Metrics and IRR," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0056, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    8. Massimo Baldini & Giovanni Gallo & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Past Income Scarcity and Current Perception of Financial Fragility," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0064, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    9. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2019. "The impact of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: A preliminary assessment on a stylized portfolio," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0075, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 49-91, February.
    11. Massimo Baldini & Giovanni Gallo & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Past Income Scarcity and Current Perception of Financial Fragility," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 17121, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    12. Stefano Cosma & Francesca Pancotto & Paola Vezzani, 2018. "Customer Complaining and Probability of Default in Consumer Credit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 18031, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    13. Francesca Arnaboldi, Francesca Gioia, 2019. "Portfolio choice: Evidence from new-borns," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0078, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    14. Stefano Cosma & Francesca Pancotto & Paola Vezzani, 2018. "Customer Complaining and Probability of Default in Consumer Credit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0068, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    15. Marianna Brunetti & Roberta de Luca, 2022. "Sensitivity of profitability in cointegration-based pairs trading," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0090, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; MES; F-MES; Stress test; Macroprudential regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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