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A Causal Framework for Credit Default Theory

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Author Info
Wilson Sy (Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority)
Abstract

Most existing credit default theories do not link causes directly to the effect of default and are unable to evaluate credit risk in a rapidly changing market environment, as experienced in the recent mortgage and credit market crisis. Causal theories of credit default are needed to understand lending risk systematically and ultimately to measure and manage credit risk dynamically for financial system stability. Unlike existing theories, credit default is treated in this paper by a joint model with dual causal processes of delinquency and insolvency. A framework for developing causal credit default theories is introduced through the example of a new residential mortgage default theory. This theory overcomes many limitations of existing theories, solves several outstanding puzzles and integrates both micro and macroeconomic factors in a unified financial economic theory for mortgage default.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp204.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 204.

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Length: 28
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:204

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Related research
Keywords: causal framework credit default risk delinquency insolvency mortgage defualt

Find related papers by JEL classification:
B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Microeconomic Data
D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Personal Finance
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dirk Hackbarth & Junjian Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2005. "Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-005, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ronel Elul, 2006. "Residential mortgage default," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 21-30. [Downloadable!]
  6. Haluk Unal & Dilip Madan & Levent Guntay, 2001. "A Simple Approach to Estimate Recovery Rates with APR Violation from Debt Spreads," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-07, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nikola A. Tarashev, 2005. "An empirical evaluation of structural credit risk models," BIS Working Papers 179, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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