IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp2006_015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements

Author

Listed:
  • Jokipii, Terhi
  • Lucey, Brian

Abstract

Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements between the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover evidence of contagion between all pairs of countries. Adjusting for market volatility during turmoil, however, produces different results. We then find contagion from the Czech Republic to Hungary during this time, but all other cross-market co-movements are rather attributable rather to strong cross-market linkages. In addition, we construct a set of dummy variables to try to capture the impact of macroeconomic news on these markets. Controlling for own-country fundamentals, we discover that the correlations diminish between the Czech Republic and Poland, but that coefficients for all pairs remain substantial and significant. Finally, we address the problem of simultaneous equations, omitted variables and heteroskedasticity, and adjust our data accordingly. We confirm our previous findings. Our tests provide evidence in favour of parameter instability, again signifying the existence of contagion arising from problems in the Czech Republic affecting Hungary during much of 1996.

Suggested Citation

  • Jokipii, Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2006_015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212040/1/bof-rdp2006-015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Fujii, Eiji, 2001. "A Note on the Power of Money-Output Causality Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 247-261, May.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    6. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    7. Khaled Sherif & Michael Borish & Alexandra Gross, 2003. "State-owned Banks in the Transition : Origins, Evolution, and Policy Responses," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14851, December.
    8. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Richard K. Lyons & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2001. "Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets: An Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 315-31-340.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    13. Broner, Fernando A. & Gaston Gelos, R. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2006. "When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 203-230, June.
    14. Rodrigo Valdés, 1997. "Emerging Market Contagion: Evidence and Theory," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 07, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Jim Hughes & Gwendolyn Sasse & Claire Gordon, 2001. "The Regional Deficit in Eastward Enlargement of the European Union: Top Down Policies and Bottom Up Reactions," One Europe or Several? Working Papers 29, One-Europe Programme.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Contagious Currency Crises: Channels of Conveyance," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 29-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Stefan Kawalec, 1999. "Banking Sector Systemic Risk in Selected Cenral European Countries. Review of: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia," CASE Network Reports 0023, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    18. Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 261-283, December.
    19. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_99-1, March.
    20. Schardax, Franz & Reininger, Thomas & Summer, Martin, 2001. "The Financial System in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland after a Decade of Transition," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    22. Barth, James R.*Caprio,Gerard*Levine, Ross, 2001. "The regulation and supervision of banks around the world - a new database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2588, The World Bank.
    23. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers: A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2000/088, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    25. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    26. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    27. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    28. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
    29. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 1998/142, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, April.
    31. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Richard K. Lyons & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2001. "Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets: An Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 315-31-340.
    32. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Eiji Fujii, 2001. "A Note on the Power of Money‐Output Causality Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 247-261, May.
    33. Mr. Ilan Goldfajn & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 1997/087, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Steven Fries & Martin Raiser & Nicholas Stern, 1999. "Stress test for reforms: Transition and East Asian ‘contagion’," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(2), pages 535-567, July.
    35. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386737, December.
    36. William B. English & Mico Loretan, 2000. "Evaluating \"correlation breakdowns\" during periods of market volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 658, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
    38. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
    39. Thierry Timmermans, 2001. "Monitoring the macroeconomic determinants of banking system stability," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 117-137, Bank for International Settlements.
    40. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    41. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2000. "Financial Contagion in Five Small Open Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Really Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 25-51, April.
    42. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Osama M Badr & Wajih Khallouli, 2019. "Testing for Shift-Contagion Vulnerability Among MENA Stock Markets During the Turkish Financial Crisis," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 53-63, January.
    2. Leitao, Joao & Armada, Manuel Rocha & Ferreira, Joaaquim, 2012. "Corruption and Co-Movements in European Listed Sport Companies: Did Calciocaos really matter?," MPRA Paper 42474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2015. "An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 474-490.
    4. Hegerty, Scott W., 2012. "Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 506-521.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Erturk, Mutahhar, 2016. "Do sovereign rating announcements have an impact on regional stock market co-movements? The case of Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 552-567.
    6. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Roca, Eduardo, 2011. "How globally contagious was the recent US real estate market crisis? Evidence based on a new contagion test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2560-2565.
    7. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol & Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2021. "Two decades of contagion effect on stock markets: Which events are more contagious?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Mensah, Jones Odei & Premaratne, Gamini, 2018. "Dependence patterns among Asian banking sector stocks: A copula approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 357-388.
    9. Guy, Kester & Lowe, Shane, 2012. "Tracing the Liquidity Effects on Bank Stability in Barbados," MPRA Paper 52205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hadhri, Sinda, 2023. "News-based economic policy uncertainty and financial contagion: An international evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 63-76.
    11. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2010. "The Impact of the US Real Estate Market on Other Major Markets During Normal and Crisis Periods," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201003, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    12. Acedański, Jan & Karkowska, Renata, 2022. "Instability spillovers in the banking sector: A spatial econometrics approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Zorgati, Imen & Lakhal, Faten & Zaabi, Elmoez, 2019. "Financial contagion in the subprime crisis context: A copula approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 269-282.
    14. Michal Adam & Piotr Banbula & Michal Markun, 2015. "International Dependence and Contagion across Asset Classes: The Case of Poland," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 254-270, May.
    15. Thomas Lagoarde‐Segot & Brian M. Lucey, 2009. "Shift‐contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(10), pages 1478-1497, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jokipii, Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2007. "Contagion and interdependence: Measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    4. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    5. Terhi Jokipii & Brian Lucey, 2005. "CEE Banking Sector Co-Movement: Contagion or Interdependence?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp077, IIIS.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    8. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    9. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    10. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
    11. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    12. Andres Kuusk & Tiiu Paas, 2010. "Contagion Of Financial Crises With Special Emphasis On Cee Economies: A Metaanalysis," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 66, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    13. Sophie Brana & Delphine Lahet, 2005. "La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 73-96.
    14. MARAIS Elise, 2004. "La contagion financi`ere : une ´etude empirique sur les causalités lors de la crise asiatique," International Finance 0404003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Elise MARAIS, 2007. "Mécanismes De Propag Ation Régionale De La Crise Boursière Asiatique," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 26, pages 13-33.
    16. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    17. Marais, E. & Bates, S., 2006. "An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 468-479, December.
    18. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    19. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    20. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    21. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2006_015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.