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A Note on the Power of Money‐Output Causality Tests

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  • Yin‐Wong Cheung
  • Eiji Fujii

Abstract

This study suggests that some empirical findings against money‐output causality can be the consequence of ignoring autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) errors. Monte Carlo results confirm that ARCH effects drastically reduce the power of the standard causality test. The maximum likelihood approach allowing for ARCH effects, on the other hand, provides a good power performance. Using different specifications and sample period, Friedman and Kuttner (1993) and Thomas (1994) report limited evidence of money causing output. We detect significant ARCH effects in the models considered by these studies. Once ARCH effects are explicitly accounted for, we find that the monetary effect is significant though its magnitude is quite small.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin‐Wong Cheung & Eiji Fujii, 2001. "A Note on the Power of Money‐Output Causality Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 247-261, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:63:y:2001:i:2:p:247-261
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0084.00219
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Yan-Leung & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Chris C., 2007. "East Asian equity markets, financial crises, and the Japanese currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 138-152, March.
    2. Jokipii, Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2007. "Contagion and interdependence: Measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.
    3. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Does money still matter for U.S. output?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 143-146, March.

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