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Contagion and interdependence: Measuring CEE banking sector co-movements

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  • Jokipii, Terhi
  • Lucey, Brian

Abstract

Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements be-tween the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover evidence of conta-gion between all pairs of countries. Adjusting for market volatility during turmoil, however, produces dif-ferent results. We then find contagion from the Czech Republic to Hungary during this time, but all other cross-market co-movements are rather attributable rather to strong cross-market linkages. In addition, we construct a set of dummy variables to try to capture the impact of macroeconomic news on these markets. Controlling for own-country fundamentals, we discover that the correlations diminish between the Czech Republic and Poland, but that coefficients for all pairs remain substantial and significant. Finally, we ad-dress the problem of simultaneous equations, omitted variables and heteroskedasticity, and adjust our data accordingly. We confirm our previous findings. Our tests provide evidence in favour of parameter insta-bility, again signifying the existence of contagion arising from problems in the Czech Republic affecting Hungary during much of 1996.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 31 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 71-96

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:31:y:2007:i:1:p:71-96

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Roca, Eduardo, 2011. "How globally contagious was the recent US real estate market crisis? Evidence based on a new contagion test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2560-2565.
  2. Hegerty, Scott W., 2012. "Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 506-521.
  3. Andres KUUSK & Tiiu Paas & Andres KUUSK, 2011. "Financial contagion of the 2008 crisis: is there any evidence of financial contagion from the US to the Baltic states," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 2, pages 61-76, December.
  4. Andres Kuusk & Tiiu Paas, 2010. "Contagion Of Financial Crises With Special Emphasis On Cee Economies: A Metaanalysis," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 66, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
  5. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2010. "The Impact of the US Real Estate Market on Other Major Markets During Normal and Crisis Periods," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201003, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
  6. Leitao, Joao & Armada, Manuel Rocha & Ferreira, Joaaquim, 2012. "Corruption and Co-Movements in European Listed Sport Companies: Did Calciocaos really matter?," MPRA Paper 42474, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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