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Financial contagion in the subprime crisis context: A copula approach

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  • Zorgati, Imen
  • Lakhal, Faten
  • Zaabi, Elmoez

Abstract

This paper investigates the financial contagion phenomenon and its intensity in the context of the subprime crisis by adopting the copulas approach. The wavelet technique is used to predict the accurate occurrence of the subprime crisis. To estimate the parameters of the different copulas, we use the canonical maximum likelihood method (CML). Based on the daily returns of stock market indices of five American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Canada and the USA) and nine Asian countries (Japan, Hong Kong, India, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, China and Singapore) from 01/01/2003 to 30/12/2011, our results show that the contagion effect exists for all American markets as well as the Indian, Australian, Indonesian, Malaysian, Chinese and Singaporean ones. The findings also show that American markets record high levels of contagion intensity in comparison to their Asian counterparts. This study also confirms the contagious nature of the subprime crisis between USA and both American and Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zorgati, Imen & Lakhal, Faten & Zaabi, Elmoez, 2019. "Financial contagion in the subprime crisis context: A copula approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 269-282.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:269-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.11.014
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    1. Chen, Bing & Li, Li & Peng, Fei & Anwar, Sajid, 2020. "Risk contagion in the banking network: New evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Juan Andres Rodriguez-Nieto & Andre V. Mollick, 2021. "The US financial crisis, market volatility, credit risk and stock returns in the Americas," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(2), pages 225-254, June.
    3. Stanislav Anatolyev & Vladimir Pyrlik, 2021. "Shrinkage for Gaussian and t Copulas in Ultra-High Dimensions," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp699, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Jorge Omar Razo-De-Anda & Luis Lorenzo Romero-Castro & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2023. "Contagion Patterns Classification in Stock Indices: A Functional Clustering Analysis Using Decision Trees," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-27, July.
    5. Imen Bedoui-Belghith & Slaheddine Hallara & Faouzi Jilani, 2023. "Crisis transmission degree measurement under crisis propagation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Paravee Maneejuk & Woraphon Yamaka, 2019. "Predicting Contagion from the US Financial Crisis to International Stock Markets Using Dynamic Copula with Google Trends," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    7. Ye, Wuyi & Li, Mingge & Wu, Yuehua, 2022. "A novel estimation of time-varying quantile correlation for financial contagion detection," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Zorgati, Imen & Garfatta, Riadh, 2021. "Spatial financial contagion during the COVID-19 outbreak: Local correlation approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    9. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Pyrlik, Vladimir, 2022. "Copula shrinkage and portfolio allocation in ultra-high dimensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Kuzu, Erkan & Süsay, Aynur & Tanrıöven, Cihan, 2022. "A model study for calculation of the temperatures of major stock markets in the world with the quantum simulation and determination of the crisis periods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    11. Lin, Saiyan & Chen, Rongda & Lv, Zhihong & Zhou, Tianqing & Jin, Chenglu, 2019. "Integrated measurement of liquidity risk and market risk of company bonds based on the optimal Copula model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Garfatta, Riadh & Lakhal, Faten & Zorgati, Imen, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Zorgati, Imen & Lakhal, Faten, 2020. "Spatial contagion in the subprime crisis context: Adjusted correlation versus local correlation approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 162-169.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Intensity; CML; Copula; Subprime crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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