Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Time Varying Dimension Models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Joshua C.C. Chan

    (Australian National University)

  • Gary Koop

    ()
    (University of Strathclyde; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA))

  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA))

  • Rodney W. Strachan

    (Australian National University; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA))

Abstract

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fi?tting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We ?find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious speci?cations.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.rcfea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp44_10.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 44_10.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:44_10

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Patara, 3, 47921 Rimini (RN)
Phone: +390541434142
Fax: +39054155431
Email:
Web page: http://www.rcfea.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  2. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 1999. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Economics Working Papers 443, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  3. Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  5. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Dynamic Probabilities of Restrictions in State Space Models: An Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 370-379.
  6. Ballabriga, Fernando & Sebastian, Miguel & Valles, Javier, 1999. "European asymmetries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 233-253, August.
  7. D Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 7542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
  9. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Paper Series 34_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  10. KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," CORE Discussion Papers 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  11. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
  12. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2002. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time?," IMF Working Papers 02/54, International Monetary Fund.
  13. John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2011. "Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1-29, January/F.
  14. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  15. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  16. Fabio Canova, 2007. "Bayesian Time Series and DSGE Models, from Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research
    [Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  17. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
  18. Fabio Canova, 2007. "DSGE Models, Solutions, and Approximations, from Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research
    [Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  19. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Do not waste degrees of freedom with macro data
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-06-30 14:21:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper 21124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  3. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Working Papers 2012_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  4. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2014. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2014-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2013. "Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast," CAMA Working Papers 2013-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Joshua C C Chan & Cody Y L Hsiao, 2013. "Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails and Serial Dependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Qian, Hang, 2012. "A Flexible State Space Model and its Applications," MPRA Paper 38455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Miguel, Belmonte & Gary, Koop, 2013. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-34, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  9. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2014. "Time-varying sparsity in dynamic regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 779-793.
  10. Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2013. "Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 151-164, April.

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
  1. Economic Logic blog

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:44_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Patuelli).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.