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Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change

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  • Antonello D'Agostino
  • Luca Gambetti
  • Domenico Giannone

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TV-VAR) for the US. The model generates accurate predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error, all the competing models: fixed coefficients VARs, Time-Varying ARs and the na¨ıve random walk model. These results are also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E37, E47

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 82-101

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Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:28:y:2013:i:1:p:82-101

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