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Self-fulfilling deflations

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  • Piazza, Roberto

Abstract

What types of monetary and fiscal policy rules produce self-fulfilling deflationary paths that are monotonic and empirically relevant? This paper presents simple theoretical conditions that guarantee the existence of these paths in a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. These sufficient conditions are weak enough to be satisfied by most monetary and fiscal policy rules. A quantification of the model which combines a real shock à la Hayashi and Prescott (2002) with a simultaneous sunspot that deanchors inflation expectations matches the main empirical features of the Japanese deflationary process during the “lost decade”. The results also highlight the key role of the assumption about the anchoring of inflation expectations for the size of fiscal multipliers and, in general, for any policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Piazza, Roberto, 2016. "Self-fulfilling deflations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 18-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:73:y:2016:i:c:p:18-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.08.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William A. & Bella, Giovanni & Ghosh, Taniya & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2022. "Shilnikov chaos, low interest rates, and New Keynesian macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. S Borağan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Frank Schorfheide, 2018. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 87-118.
    3. Roc Armenter, 2013. "The perils of nominal targets," Working Papers 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Barnett William A. & Bella Giovanni & Mattana Paolo & Venturi Beatrice & Ghosh Taniya, 2023. "Controlling chaos in New Keynesian macroeconomics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 219-236, April.
    5. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    6. Roberto Piazza, 2015. "Deflation expectations and Japan's lost decade," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 274, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Abad, Nicolas & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2020. "The failure of stabilization policy: Balanced-budget fiscal rules in the presence of incompressible public expenditures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & da Cunha Lima, Luiza Leitão, 2018. "Effects of fiscal transparency on inflation and inflation expectations: Empirical evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-37.
    9. Locarno, Alberto & Delle Monache, Davide & Busetti, Fabio & Gerali, Andrea, 2017. "Trust, but verify. De-anchoring of inflation expectations under learning and heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1994, European Central Bank.
    10. Busetti, Fabio & Neri, Stefano & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; Liquidity trap; Deanchoring; Inflation target; Sunspot;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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